Bruce Feldman’s 2023 College football Freaks list is now available.
The college football season is over and the offseason is underway, so let’s put a bow on the year and look forward in this week’s Group of 5 mailbag.
Highlights and lowlights of G5 and the transfer portal — which teams benefited the most and which were hurt the most and/or which were not impacted? — Max. F.
Let’s simplify this into a winners and losers list.
Advertisement
Winner: SMU. Rhett Lashlee not only has the top G5 transfer class, it’s one of the best classes in the country, period. With 17 additions (and potentially more to come), the Mustangs have the No. 6 transfer class in 247Sports’ rankings. That class includes two four-star prospects in Texas A&M running back LJ Johnson (a top-50 player in the Class of 2021) and Texas A&M offensive tackle PJ Williams (a top-100 player in the Class of 2022). Other highlights include five players from Miami (Fla.), where Lashlee previously coached, and 13 total players from Power 5 teams. Lashlee was with Sonny Dykes when SMU was at the forefront of transfer portal recruiting. That has continued under Lashlee’s leadership.
Loser: Kent State. This isn’t a surprise, given that head coach Sean Lewis left to be the offensive coordinator at Colorado, but almost every key contributor from an offense that was No. 2 in the MAC in yards per play has left. Quarterback Collin Schlee went to UCLA, top rusher Marquez Cooper went to Ball State and the top three receivers went to Power 5 schools, as did two offensive linemen. New head coach Kenni Burns will have to rebuild this program from scratch. That process includes a good number of incoming transfers, but it’s hard to immediately replace how much was lost.
Winner: Charlotte. New head coach Biff Poggi has 20 scholarship additions in his transfer class, including 15 Power 5 players. The highlights come on the defensive line, with notable additions like Maryland defensive lineman Austin Fontaine, Jackson State defensive lineman KaTron Evans, Ole Miss edge rusher Demon Clowney and Notre Dame edge rusher Osita Ekwonu. Most notably, On3 credits with Charlotte with 36 total transfers, and 14 of those once played at St. Frances High School in Baltimore, where Poggi coached from 2017 to 2020. Don’t be surprised if there are more coming, too.
Loser: Western Michigan. Like Kent State, WMU saw an exodus of top talent after a coaching change. It fired Tim Lester, and top rusher Sean Tyler, a 1,000-yard running back, went to Minnesota. Edge rusher Andre Carter (13.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks last year) went to Indiana. Defensive lineman Braden Fiske (12 TFLs, six sacks) went to Florida State. In total, six WMU players left for Power 5 schools.
Advertisement
Winner: Western Kentucky. I’ll have a larger story coming on this soon, but WKU is here for who it didn’t lose, rather than who it gained. Quarterback Austin Reed, who led the nation with 4,744 passing yards, went in the portal but later withdrew and stuck with WKU despite interest from numerous Power 5 teams. The same happened with edge rusher JaQues Evans. Receiver Malachi Corley also opted to stay and didn’t enter the portal despite having a lot of potential interest. WKU still lost five players to Power 5 schools, but a program that has been among the biggest winners with additions like Reed and Bailey Zappe in recent years did a good job holding onto talent. The Hilltoppers should be the C-USA favorite next year.
Thoughts on the ASUN/WAC “mega-conference” coming soon? — Pete G.
I can tell you this was a major point of conversation with almost everyone I talked with at the NCAA convention two weeks ago. I’ll have more on this later, but I can share my initial thoughts after talking with Oliver Luck (who is consulting on this venture) and other people around it. First and foremost: This is mostly about creating a football-only FCS conference, as both the ASUN and WAC are low on members, and their waiver for a combined FCS playoff automatic qualifying spot expires in another year or so. This would formally create something like the Missouri Valley Football Conference or Pioneer Football League for the football teams. That makes sense.
The idea of moving up to FBS as a conference … I’m skeptical. Essentially, there isn’t a rule saying they CAN or CAN’T, so everyone will have to figure that out if it reaches that point. I can tell you that nobody among the current G5 conferences is open to giving up a share of College Football Playoff money. Luck is going to visit all 10 schools and do an audit to see how invested and prepared each school is and proceed from there. To me, an FBS move as a conference is unlikely. As people at North Dakota State have told me, if a conference can just move up together, the Bison would just go with the MVFC rather than join a lesser league in order to move.
GO DEEPER
Does North Dakota State want to move up? The big question facing CFB's most dominant team
Big 12 and Pac-12 would likely want to continue expanding. Who are the next G5 teams to get gobbled up? — Christopher B.
Everything I’ve been told, and has been previously reported, is that the Pac-12 will complete its media deal first and then do potential expansion second. People I talked to at the NCAA convention all agreed that San Diego State should be atop the list, because of its location in southern California, its football and men’s basketball success and its new football stadium and expanded campus. If the Pac-12 wants a new presence in the region after the loss of USC and UCLA, SDSU would fit that. The Big 12 has also been public about its desire to play football games in the late-night window with a West Coast team. SDSU playing in a Big 12 that stretches from California to Florida to Ohio wouldn’t be ideal for travel, but that could be another option if a Pac-12 invite doesn’t come.
After that, it’s a mix of schools. Both the Pac-12 and Big 12 are looking at Gonzaga, perhaps for men’s basketball only or in all sports it plays (it does not play football). SMU would bring money, strong academics, access to Texas and the addition of the Central time zone to the Pac-12 or perhaps the ACC if it expands (a Big 12 invite is unlikely). UNLV’s biggest advantage is Las Vegas as a popular tourist destination, one the Pac-12 has tried to own with its football championship game and basketball tournaments. The Rebels have been among the worst FBS teams for two decades and don’t get big crowds, but it would be inviting for road fans. Fresno State is also making a P5 push with support of the city, and Boise State’s long football success is well-known nationally. Memphis still has Big 12 dreams.
Advertisement
But before another G5 team moves to the P5, several dominos need to fall. The Pac-12 needs to complete its TV deal, and we need to see if the Big 12’s dream of adding current Pac-12 teams happens or not. After that, several G5 schools will elbow to the front of the line.
Troy, Southern Miss, and South Alabama all saw drastic improvement over their more recent campaigns and I don’t think ULL won’t stay down for long. Is this a sign that power in the Sun Belt is shifting to the West division or does the SBC still go through the East? — Ryan B.
It seems clear to me it already did. The quick breakthroughs at Troy and South Alabama under Jon Sumrall and Kane Wommack, respectively, were dramatic, and they came on the backs of strong defense. This wasn’t about one great quarterback. Elsewhere, Will Hall is continuing to turn Southern Miss into a respectable program again, and Texas State and Arkansas State should improve in 2023. The East division remains deeper top-to-bottom — Coastal Carolina still has Grayson McCall, Marshall and James Madison had terrific debuts, Georgia Southern has bounced back and App State still has a long track record.
But the two best teams in the Sun Belt last year were in the West, and that may be the case again in 2023.
Why doesn’t Chris Creighton at Eastern Michigan get more attention during the head coach carousel, especially when jobs like Purdue open up? He’s won consistently in some difficult places going all the way back to his days at Wabash College? — Michael M.
Creighton’s 46-61 overall record at EMU, lack of Power 5 experience and lack of a breakthrough 10-win-type season combine to hold him back, even if I completely disagree with this concept. Creighton just produced the second nine-win season in EMU history, he’s brought unprecedented success to one of the toughest jobs in the country and he’s won everywhere he’s been.
But that’s the theory that permeates with a lot of decision-makers. You’d think the P5 success of Lance Leipold and Chris Klieman would change that, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Have you seen anything like what’s happened to MTSU? They’ve given Rick Stockstill, a .500 coach who’s not popular with the fans, who hasn’t won a conference title in 18 years, essentially a lifetime contract (an automatic extension for a 6-6 season). A once growing program has dwindled down to embarrassing attendance, no interest at all thanks to repeated mediocre seasons, poor recruiting, poor development, etc. — Douglas R.
MTSU is kind of like the G5 Iowa, with a head coach contract it can’t get out of. Good enough to make bowl games regularly, not good enough to win the league. Everything’s just kind of stuck in “above average,” with one season with more than eight wins (10-3 in 2009).
There are certainly worse places to be from a fan standpoint, but after 17 years under Stockstill, I understand why fans would want more. It’s especially noteworthy in a region growing in population and football talent that MTSU should be able to take advantage of.
Advertisement
Has expansion of the CFP had a domino effect yet on the scheduling of future games between G5 and P5? If not, when will we start to see these unintended consequences? — Tom W.
Not quite yet, though top programs like Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State have scheduled more marquee nonconference games down the road. The real answer will come with future conference scheduling. Does the SEC move to nine league games? Does the Big Ten move back to eight? Does the Pac-12 change?
Former Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson told me in 2021 that the MWC had talked about moving to nine conference games if there were fewer P5 games out there. The AAC doesn’t want to move to nine because it wants as many P5 games as possible. That’ll be determined by how many league games the P5 conferences play when realignment settles.
How would you assess — and what are you hearing about — Trent Dilfer’s impact at UAB? — Tyler G.
There’s been some skepticism in the coaching and agent community about the staff Dilfer has put together. At his introductory news conference, Dilfer admitted he didn’t know much about the day-to-day work of recruiting and running a college football program, but that he would hire people who do. His offensive coordinator, Alex Mortensen, has never led an FBS position room, spending the past eight years as an Alabama graduate assistant and analyst. Defensive coordinator Sione Ta’ufo’ou followed Dilfer from the high school ranks.
Of the nine announced assistant coaches, only three have been full-time FBS assistant coaches before: running backs coach Hindley Brigham and stars/nickels coach Earnest Hill, both retained from the previous UAB staff, and secondary coach Kenneth Gilstrap. Most of the coaches are off-field staff from places like Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State. That’s not to say this won’t work out for Dilfer. It’s been only two months. But the questions people had when he took the job remain questions.
(Top photo of Rhett Lashlee and SMU: Chris Jones / USA Today)
