GLENDALE, Ariz. — With 25 seconds remaining in the Fiesta Bowl, while the referees on the field had their heads under the camera hoods reviewing a targeting call, TCU coaches emerged from their booths. They were running toward the elevator to get down to the field as soon as possible. They were screaming in jubilation. The purple confetti had yet to fall, but celebration was waiting.
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“We’re going to the natty, baby!” one yelled.
“See you in LA!” another chanted three times as he jumped.
This College Football Playoff semifinal — certainly one of the most exciting games in the nine-year history of the four-team field — was all but over. TCU 51, Michigan 45. TCU, the No. 32 team in the sport this year in the 247Sports Composite team talent rankings — down from No. 29 last year — is four quarters away from winning a national championship.
Now the real sweat begins for me.
A five-star QB just threw two touchdown passes to the defense and I'm on skates. Writing a column about it after the game. Stay tuned.
— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman) December 31, 2022
As many of you know, I’ve oversimplified the sport of college football. My “Stars Matter” mantra has been built off of the seemingly obvious fact that the teams with the most good players win the most. The numbers back it up: Since the online recruiting rankings era began in 2000, only three teams have won a national championship without ever signing a top-five recruiting class in any of the previous four recruiting cycles. The exceptions were 2010 Auburn (led by Cam Newton), 2016 Clemson (led by Deshaun Watson) and 2018 Clemson (led by Trevor Lawrence). All three of those teams, though, signed top-10 recruiting classes in the previous four years.
“Stars Matter” is built on these facts. Teams that don’t have a certain number of elite-level players on their roster, though absolutely capable of upsetting a more talented team, aren’t built to win a national championship.
This wonderful TCU team — the one that has found a way all season long, regardless of how dire the circumstances have looked at times — is a threat to be the first.
This team put up 51 points against a Michigan team that ranks 15 spots ahead of it in the 247Sports team talent rankings. The Horned Frogs picked off a five-star quarterback and returned it for a touchdown twice. They got important red zone stops multiple times against a team that supposedly had the best offensive line in college football.
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And now this roster, one that was once picked to finish in the bottom half of the Big 12 this year, has advanced.
We’re four quarters away from the ultimate exception doing the thing I’ve repeatedly said cannot be done.
How? I asked TCU head coach Sonny Dykes how he made a roster, in his first year as coach, that is threatening to shift how we view talent in college football and what it means about accomplishing the ultimate goal.
“In today’s college football world, it is a lot different assembling a team than it used to be,” Dykes said. “You used to rely on signing the recruiting class, you redshirted the class if your program is good enough to do that, so all the programs that were good historically had an advantage because they didn’t have to play freshmen. Those teams went to bowl games, got those 15 extra practices and got a chance to work those young players. There was only one way to acquire players, and that was through traditional high school recruiting.
“Well, in today’s world, it’s, it’s a lot different, you know, you can acquire players and a lot of different ways. People don’t really redshirt as much anymore. Because if you do redshirt somebody, chances are, they’re not going to be there for very long. … So what happens is, that opens the door for maybe non-traditional programs to be able to acquire players in a different way, which is kind of what we did.”
GO DEEPER
Retracing TCU's unlikely, one-of-a-kind path to the College Football Playoff
TCU took 13 transfers in the offseason. The defensive line was going to be a major issue, but Dykes and his staff were able to address that in the portal. And on a stage like this, against a team like Michigan with a nasty offensive line, those guys showed up.
“Had we not been able to add those 13 transfers, you know, we would have been in trouble defensively,” Dykes said. “So our roster is probably constructed a little bit differently than Michigan’s is, but I do think that you’re going to start to see more teams like TCU, you know, to get on stages like this.”
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TCU could be the program that forces us to reconsider how we view roster talent. TCU fell three spots in the 247Sports Composite from last year, which begs the question — in the age of the transfer portal, are we evaluating these rosters properly? Do we re-rank rosters after every year once we get a better idea of hits and misses? Do we re-rank players once they hit the portal? Do we weigh high school football recruiting rankings differently? Does the blue-chip ratio mean less? As college football evolves — and there are more years when more than 1,000 players hit the transfer portal — we’re going to have to also evolve in how we break down the sport and who is capable of making it to this stage. That day is going to come eventually.
Now? Talent is still king … unless TCU proves that it’s not the end-all, be-all.
TCU’s team talent doesn’t compare to the two teams on the other side of the Playoff bracket. So while we sit here and marvel at how far TCU has come, which is tremendous given the Horned Frogs were a 200-1 long shot to reach the Playoff before the year, the job isn’t done. There is a final boss.
Georgia has 68 combined former four- and five-star recruits on its roster, 15 of whom are five-star prospects. Ohio State has 66 blue-chip players, 14 of whom are former five-star prospects. TCU has 17 total blue-chippers. It has one five-star, Marcel Brooks, who doesn’t even play. Michigan, which had 44 blue-chip prospects, had a talent advantage against the Horned Frogs in Glendale Saturday night and it didn’t matter. But the Wolverines — who beat Ohio State in Columbus in November — can’t compare to what Ohio State and Georgia bring to the table on this stage.
For teams like TCU, the boogeyman is always waiting for them. Cinderella stories always end too soon because the teams stacked with talent can’t be beaten. It happens time and time again, which is why it’s been the same collection of five teams winning on this stage year after year.
TCU gives us a breath of fresh air. There’s a new story to write about, and a Cinderella we can all root for.
But until TCU beats Georgia or Ohio State next week, dare I say …
Stars Matter.
(Top photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
