Silly season is damn near upon us. Let’s dig in.
1. WVU gets a head start
When speaking last week about the tenuous situation at West Virginia, an agent threw out a funny, not-all-that-realistic hypothetical: How about Texas A&M boosters pool together $20 million-plus to pay the Mountaineers for Shane Lyons’ and Neal Brown’s buyouts and to take West Virginia native Jimbo Fisher off their hands?
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The scenario speaks to the rampant nature of silly season, when money suddenly doesn’t become an issue, when speculation runs rampant, and when no move seems impossible.
Fisher’s Aggies have since been officially eliminated from bowl contention thanks to another listless loss, this time at Auburn in interim coach Cadillac Williams’ home debut. And on Monday, WVU took the first step toward moving on from the Brown coaching tenure, as the school parted ways with Lyons, the athletic director who hired him.
Fisher probably isn’t going anywhere, but there will likely be a new head coach in Morgantown next season. WVU president Gordon Gee and interim AD Rob Alsop said all the right things Monday about how they support Brown, but reality is reality: The school hired Turnkey ZRG to assist with an AD hire, and it put a “three to four” week timeline on the AD search, which is far quicker than the norm these days.
None of this bodes well for Brown, who is coming off a signature win over Oklahoma, the Mountaineers’ first triumph over the Sooners since joining the Big 12. Brown improved to 21-24 in four seasons, and 13-20 in league play. The Mountaineers need to beat Kansas State and win at Oklahoma State just to go bowling this season.
Lyons was by all accounts a good AD who, like most before him, was undone by a football hire that looked great at the time but turned out to be subpar. Perhaps Brown wins out and impresses his new boss enough to save his job, but that seems unlikely. Thus, West Virginia will likely be in the same boat as Georgia Tech and Auburn this fall in running searches for both an AD and a head football coach, this time on a much quicker timeline.
Washington State AD Pat Chun, Tulane AD Troy Dannen, New Mexico AD Eddie Nunez and — if WVU wants to reach back to the Oliver Luck tree — LSU Tiger Athletic Foundation president Matt Borman make sense as potential AD replacements, although it is fair to wonder how turned off candidates will be by Lyons’ treatment.
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Jason Candle, Sean Lewis and Jeff Monken could be viable coaching candidates, although Brown’s struggles show that the jump from Group of 5 star to West Virginia head coach is no sure thing. (Brown went 35-16 in four seasons at Troy, posting three consecutive 10-win seasons.)
Here are two other wild cards, for entirely different reasons: Rich Rodriguez and Scott Satterfield. It would probably take too much fence-mending for Rodriguez and WVU to reunite, but everyone can remember how special the times were when RichRod, the former Mountaineers DB, had things rolling at his alma mater. He is currently 7-2 in his first year as head coach at Jacksonville State.
Satterfield, meanwhile, has turned the conversation about his tenure around at Louisville, which is 6-4 with games left against NC State and at Kentucky. But there will never be a shortage of powerful local voices who want alum Jeff Brohm to come home, and a nice finish to this season could be a springboard for the Cardinals coach to restart his clock back on the East Coast.
2. Coaches worth monitoring these next two weeks
Eight coaches have been fired during this season, and decision day is coming for several others in the next two weeks. Here are five names to keep a close eye on, as their fates have yet to be decided.
Tom Allen, Indiana. The best thing that Allen has going for him right now is his buyout, which is north of $20 million both this year and next year, per the Indianapolis Star. Is Indiana really in the business of burning that kind of cash? The school had donors do it for Archie Miller almost two years ago, but that was at roughly half the dollar amount, and it was for basketball, which remains kind of a big deal in Hoosiers country. Does Indiana aspire to be more in football? That new Big Ten TV money is nice, but it isn’t exactly an advantage when everyone else in the conference has it, too. Allen’s 14-7 run across the 2019 and 2020 seasons was memorable. But Indiana is just 5-17 since, including 1-15 in Big Ten play. Those 15 losses have come by an average of 22.8 points per game, with 11 by 10 or more points, 10 by 20 or more points, five by 30 or more points, and two by 40 or more points. Indiana fired offensive line coach Darren Hiller six games into this season after the Hoosiers allowed 19 sacks and rushed for just 61.2 yards per game against FBS opponents. Indiana surrendered 13 sacks and rushed for 78.25 yards in the four games since then under interim position coach Rod Carey.
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Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green. Loeffler entered 2022 on one of the hottest seats in the country, as he had a 7-22 record through three seasons, including 4-17 in MAC play. Then the man who hired him, AD Bob Moosbrugger, was fired on the eve of the season, making this a Hail Mary campaign of sorts for Loeffler. But the Falcons have largely turned things around, going 5-5 overall and 4-2 in conference play. They had won three consecutive games before getting routed 40-6 by Kent State in their home finale last week, setting up a tough two-game closing stretch at Toledo and at Ohio, the conference’s two first-place teams. Bowl eligibility is on the line, but Loeffler has shown enough progress in Year 4 to give recently hired AD Derek van der Merwe a lot to think about as the season comes to a close.
Chuck Martin, Miami-Ohio. A 16-point home loss to Ohio last week was a tough blow. The RedHawks are just 4-6 overall and 43-58 across nine seasons under Martin, who has made it longer than most at a MAC school but likely reached his peak with a 23-19 run and no losing seasons from 2018-21. His deal is up at the end of the 2024 season. This is one of the more desirable jobs in the conference, and short of winning out — not impossible amid a particularly wild year in the MAC — that streak will end. Stay tuned with this one.
Ken Niumatololo, Navy. Speculation surrounding the 16th-year Navy head coach’s future has become an annual rite of passage, as the Midshipmen have fallen sharply from the highs of their 11-2 season in 2019 and are in the midst of a third straight losing season, and fourth in five years. Few have been better representatives of the game, and of the Naval Academy, than the 57-year-old Niumatalolo, who upset Army in last year’s finale. Navy was affected by the pandemic-shortened 2020 season more than most, and it has gone just 10-22 since 2019. This year’s 3-7 mark is a little deceiving, as Navy is better than its record, losing four games by a touchdown or less, including a spirited comeback Saturday in a three-point loss to Notre Dame. If anyone has earned the right to walk away on his own terms, it’s Niumatalolo, who has yet to give an indication of which way he is leaning.
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis. Silverfield is 5-5 this season and has not had a losing season in three years with the Tigers, a stretch that is likely to continue as FCS North Alabama comes to town this Saturday. But Silverfield is just 19-15 overall and 11-12 in conference play. The program has dipped from the Justin Fuente-Mike Norvell days, as the Tigers’ stretch of seven straight 8-win seasons was snapped last year (6-6). Memphis is 0-3 this season in games decided by a touchdown or less, after going 4-4 in such games last season and 4-1 in those games in 2020. The prevailing question if you’re Memphis: Does the sting of getting left behind in conference realignment force you to make a rash decision on your football program? Or does being among the best remaining Group of 5 programs in the country position you better for College Football Playoff berths once the CFP expands?
3. Staffs worth monitoring
The five head coaches of these programs are safe, but changes are likely coming to their staffs after underwhelming performances on either side of the ball.
Iowa. How could Kirk Ferentz possibly justify running it back with this offensive staff, particularly with his son Brian as offensive coordinator? Iowa may very well win the Big Ten West for the second consecutive season (more on that below), but that would be in spite of its offense, not because of it. The Hawkeyes compiled just 146 yards of total offense at a paltry 2.2 yards per play in their 24-10 win over Wisconsin. This seemed doomed from the start, and it has gone worse than expected: Iowa is 130th (out of 131 FBS teams) in total offense (251.1 yards per game), 128th in yards per play (4.19), 124th in scoring offense (17.9 points per game), 123rd in passing offense (152.7 ypg) and 119th in rushing offense (98.4 ypg). The Hawkeyes have scored 10 or fewer points in four of 10 games. And the sad part is, they have wasted a truly special defensive season, as that unit ranks first in yards per play (3.81), third in total D (260.7 ypg) and fifth in scoring D (13.9 ppg).
Missouri. No head coach has won a national title while calling his own plays since Jimbo Fisher at Florida State in 2013. No one is mistaking Missouri for a national title contender any time soon (nor is anyone mistaking Fisher for one anymore, for that matter), but that stat underscores the difficulty of any head coach this side of Lincoln Riley being so involved in the offense. Missouri ranks 96th nationally in scoring (23.2 ppg), 93rd in total offense (353.9 ypg) and 94th in yards per play (5.27). The Tigers are 4-6 with winnable games left against New Mexico State and Arkansas. Before Saturday’s blowout loss at Tennessee, their four SEC losses had come by a combined 18 points. They were giving up just 18.6 points per game in conference play before a 66-24 loss to the Volunteers. The defense — last week notwithstanding — has been exceptional, which is why coordinator Blake Baker received an extension earlier this month. The offense has not been, which is why Drinkwitz is going to have to do a thorough evaluation and likely make an outside offensive coordinator hire if he hopes to make it beyond 2023, which is the first year of his extension. The recently signed deal bumps his pay from $4 million to $6 million next season, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, but the ensuing buyout is school-friendly.
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Northwestern. Pat Fitzgerald took the rare step Monday of publicly acknowledging that it is fair to question whether he needs to make changes to his program following consecutive brutal seasons. That may sound like an obvious statement to anyone who has viewed the Wildcats through a neutral lens the past two seasons, as they are 4-18 overall, but that also undersells how stubborn coaches like Fitzgerald can be when questioned about their approach, especially in-season. Northwestern made the rare but necessary move of firing offensive coordinator Mick McCall following a 3-9 campaign in 2019, but replacement Mike Bajakian hasn’t fared a whole lot better, posting offenses that rank 93rd (2020), 116th (2021) and 100th (2022) nationally in total yards; and 92nd (2020), 125th (2021) and 128th (2022) in scoring. Northwestern is on its fourth primary starting quarterback in as many seasons following the four-year starting run of Clayton Thorson, and the program is averaging an abysmal 15.3 points per game this season, as it is mired in a nine-game losing streak after a season-opening win in Dublin over Nebraska. The defense hasn’t been any better since the 2020 retirement of longtime coordinator Mike Hankwitz, ranking 82nd in total defense this season and 102nd last season. (The unit has been 83rd and 89th, respectively, in scoring defense the past two seasons.) Second-year coordinator Jim O’Neil was a surprising hire at the time and clearly has not worked out. With an $800 million commitment to start building a new Ryan Field after the 2023 season, Northwestern needs to put a better football product on the field. That starts with self-examination the minute next week’s finale against Illinois is complete.
Oklahoma. Brent Venables’ debut season in Norman hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. At 5-5 with remaining games against rival Oklahoma State and at Texas Tech, it is possible that the Sooners will see their 23-year bowl streak — the second-longest active streak behind Georgia — come to an end. Regardless, changes are coming to Oklahoma, and not a moment too soon. As colleague Andy Staples wrote — before the Sooners lost three more games this season — the pain of this year should force the Sooners to grow ahead of their SEC baptism in 2025-26. That should start on defense, where Venables needs to take a more hands-on approach after a season in which the Sooners currently rank 109th in total defense, 74th in yards per play allowed, 94th in scoring defense, 120th in rushing defense and 76th in passing defense. Oklahoma was not exactly a defensive behemoth during the Lincoln Riley tenure, and it is unclear how much this year’s shortcomings should fall on the shoulders of coordinator Ted Roof. But this shouldn’t be happening with a Venables-coached team. It is worth remembering that Venables’ first defense at Clemson in 2012 actually performed slightly worse than the 2011 unit did without him, as the 2012 Tigers gave up more yards per game (396.5) and more yards per play (5.65) than the 2011 unit that prompted his hiring (394.4 and 5.60). By 2013, though, the Tigers were rolling. Oklahoma also lacks the explosive playmakers of the recent past outside of Marvin Mims, as the Sooners are the only Big 12 team without a second top-25 receiver in terms of receiving yards. Dennis Simmons, who left with Riley for USC, was arguably the best outside receivers coach in the country. The inside receivers coach, longtime OU aide Cale Gundy, had taken over the entire group but resigned during camp after using a “racially charged” word in the film room, leaving analyst L’Damian Washington in charge for this season. A full search for the right receivers coach, along with a re-evaluation of defensive oversight, will go a long way toward getting Oklahoma back on the right path next season.
Texas A&M. We mentioned Fisher earlier in regard to what he used to be able to do. Clearly, that approach is not working anymore with the Aggies, who fell to 3-7 with a loss at Auburn and 2-9 in their last 11 games against FBS opponents. Texas A&M ranks 108th nationally in scoring offense (21.5 ppg), one year after ranking just 56th (29.3). The Aggies’ 36 points per game clip in Fisher’s first year of 2018 was good for 19th nationally and has been the only impressive offensive showing of his now five-year tenure. Texas A&M has not scored more than 31 points in a game this season, and it has not hit the 30-point total against an FBS opponent since more than a year ago, when it beat South Carolina 44-14 on Oct. 23, 2021. That’s a span of 12 games, which is 12 too many for a program that extended its head coach before 2021 at a rate of $90 million across 10 years. Fisher must re-think his offensive philosophy and hire a proven play caller to turn things around immediately. And yes, it is ultimately all up to Fisher, because with his fully guaranteed deal and a prohibitive buyout, no one can force him to do anything. Good luck, Aggies.
4. Let’s get weird in the (Big Ten) West
North Carolina has already locked up the ACC Coastal in the last year of that division’s existence. The Coastal’s distant cousin, the Big Ten West, will likely have just one more year of existence, but that doesn’t mean things can’t get weird in the final two weeks of 2022.
Illinois’ loss to Purdue left the door open for absolute chaos. Four teams sit at 4-3 in Big Ten play, with Wisconsin one game out at 3-4.
Let’s trying handicapping this, shall we?
Illinois: The Illini could have all but wrapped this thing up by beating either Purdue or Michigan State at home the past two weeks, but now the team tied with Minnesota for the best overall record (7-3) in the West is watching its dream season slip out of its grasp. Illinois was gifted Michigan State and Indiana as East crossover opponents this year but lost to both. Now, it travels to undefeated Michigan for its third crossover game. The Illini do get 1-9 Northwestern after that, but will 5-4 be enough to win the West? Of note: They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but not Purdue.
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Iowa: Left for dead following a 44-point loss at Ohio State three weeks ago, the Hawkeyes have rattled off three straight wins, including consecutive upsets over Purdue and Wisconsin. Iowa travels to Minnesota this week, where it opens as an underdog despite winning seven in a row in this rivalry series. If the Hawkeyes survive that trip, though, they return home for a Black Friday game against Nebraska — another team they have beaten in seven straight meetings. Iowa holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Purdue and Wisconsin, but not Illinois.
Minnesota: Consecutive rivalry games against Iowa and Wisconsin make winning out seem like a tough test. But if the Gophers can do that while clinching the West on top of it? One can only imagine the party P.J. Fleck would throw in the Twin Cities. Remember, Minnesota would have been representing the West in Indianapolis last season had Nebraska not blown a 15-point second-half home lead to Iowa in last year’s finale. At the moment, Minnesota has no relevant head-to-head tiebreaker.
Purdue: Purdue has made a habit of getting in the way of things, as the Boilermakers have risen from the apparent dead time after time this season. Their win Saturday in Champaign puts the entire division in flux, and with remaining games against 1-9 Northwestern and at 3-7 Indiana, the Boilers have the clearest path to 6-3. But this is the same team that no-showed in consecutive games against Wisconsin and Iowa earlier this season, along with blowing late leads against Penn State and Syracuse, so to assume anything with Purdue would be foolish. The Boilers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Illinois and Minnesota, but not Iowa or Wisconsin.
Wisconsin: What a rollercoaster season this must be for Jim Leonhard, huh? He starts out as a defensive coordinator, gets thrust into the head-coaching seat five games in after the only boss he’s ever known gets unceremoniously fired, seems to earn all of the goodwill needed to win this job full-time … but has two losses on his resume, which leaves his Badgers alone in fifth place behind the four teams tied at the top. The Badgers aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, as they can win out and then hope and pray that absolute chaos happens all around them. (Chaos that involves Northwestern winning out, among other longshots.) The realistic best-case scenario is winning out — particularly in convincing fashion against Minnesota after losing to their rival last year — and seeing Leonhard get the job full-time. Then, they can start anew with one of their own, who will do everything he can to make sure that the Badgers are never again looking up at the four teams currently in front of them.
The verdict: It’s hard not to say Purdue, based on that schedule. But Iowa has it fairly easy, too, and the Hawkeyes hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Boilers. No team controls its own destiny here, which makes it all the more fun.
Can you imagine a more fitting ending to this wild season for Kirk Ferentz than Iowa slogging its way to Indianapolis once again? Anyone up for a rematch of this year’s 55-10 Ohio State game? No? How about we interest you in a rematch of last year’s 42-3 Big Ten title game loss to Michigan instead?
(Top photo of Shane Lyons celebrating with coach Neal Brown after West Virginia’s victory against Oklahoma: Ben Queen / USA Today)
