It’s gone from bad to brutal since we opened up the mailbag to your questions, Kentucky fans. You were angry after a 26-point loss at Alabama on Saturday. You’re despondent after an unimaginable home loss to 20-point underdog South Carolina on Tuesday.
But in Lexington, it’s not quite as simple as answering the question of whether it’s time to move on from John Calipari. Let’s start there.
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I know Cal has “ambassador” type terminology in his contract. What are the odds that he steps back and takes on that role either after this season or at the end of the next season to let another coach take over? Would love to keep him with the university in that role to help maintain recruiting among other things. Why else would he have added the ambassador terminology in that contract? — Josh V.
The short answer: That ambassador thing is never happening. We’ll come back to it. But first, it’s worth revisiting the opening scene of my preseason story about how Calipari was approaching his future, which hits a little different today. From October:
John Calipari had already stayed longer than expected. He was the featured guest on a panel about how to lead and succeed at the highest level in sports last week at the Central Bank Center, and after several classic, rambling Calipari anecdotes, he was barreling through his allotted time. The moderator made a gentle, futile attempt to silence the most ungovernable mouth in college basketball: OK, I think we’re about out of time. Calipari grinned and shook his head.
“You understand,” he said, “I leave when I feel like leaving.”
And that’s basically where this thing stands today. On June 13, 2019, Calipari signed a 10-year, $86 million contract that has been called a “lifetime” deal. Lately, though, it feels like a lifetime has passed since Calipari was actually worth that giant pile of money. Doesn’t matter. He’s getting it. Recent reports of mutual interest between Texas and Calipari — and, yes, we’re told there has been some initial back-channel communication there — remind us that his flirtation with UCLA almost four years ago is what induced UK athletic director Mitch Barnhart to make this “lifetime” commitment. It was a bad idea then and an albatross now.
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The contract says that if Calipari is fired without cause (and just losing a bunch of games does not qualify as cause in this case), he’s owed 75 percent of the remaining compensation. He’s set to make $8.5 million the next two seasons and $9 million the last four years of a deal that runs through the 2028-29 season. So if you fire Calipari after this season, you owe him three-fourths of $53 million, which is a cool $39.75 million.
Now, about that “Special Assistant to the AD/University Representative Option” in the contract, which says he can step down at any time after next season and take a program ambassador role for $950,000 a year. Could he be convinced to slide into that role? Here’s what he told me in October:
“Now I want to know any normal human being that would give up a $9 million job for a $1 million job? Who would do that? I’m not doing it, OK? If something happens with my health (he’ll soon be 64) or I don’t feel like I’m up to it, that is like an insurance thing for me. That’s all it was. Now, if they want me to stop and pay me $9 million for the next five years, I’d probably consider it. But I would say, ‘What am I gonna do? I gotta do something.’”
So no, Ambassador Cal ain’t happening.
How could Cal change the way he uses his current staff to maximize the remainder of this season? By that, I’m accepting that none of an external “offensive coordinator,” Larry Brown nor John Robic will walk into the Craft Center before May. So who on this staff can effectively wear that kind of hat to help Cal rescue this season? — Aaron D.
To be frank, I think staff construction is a much bigger issue for this team than roster construction. Look at the 2012 championship team. The three full-time assistants were John Robic, Orlando Antigua and Kenny Payne. Robic was the scouting and game-plan guy, Antigua the recruiter, Payne a combo recruiter and on-court developer (and good cop to Cal’s bad cop). The perfect mix to complement, even supplement, Calipari’s head-coaching style.
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Losing Payne to the NBA three years ago and the gradual removal of Robic from an active role with the basketball program were both huge blows, clearly. Payne was with Calipari for almost a decade and Robic — a fellow Larry Brown disciple — was with him at UMass, Memphis and Kentucky. Robic was an on-court assistant the first seven years at UK and a special assistant to Calipari for five more, until he was effectively put out to pasture in a non-basketball role with the athletic department two summers ago.
It’s pretty clear how Calipari ended up with his current staff, which isn’t getting the job done: He panicked about not getting elite recruits anymore, so he assembled a group of assistants whose reputations are built on getting players, not necessarily developing them. It’s reasonable to wonder whether anyone on the current staff is meeting players at the gym at midnight like Payne routinely did or whether any of them have the scouting and game-planning acumen Robic did.
Calipari hasn’t forgotten how to coach, but he might’ve forgotten where he needs the most help. He seemed to forget that he is the recruiting ace. When he’s engaged like the old days — which is a lot to ask of a guy approaching retirement age — he’s still an unbeatable force of nature on the trail. See the Justin Edwards recruitment, which Calipari took over this summer and immediately flipped the script on a one-time Tennessee lean. I’m not really answering the question about what this staff can do to help right the ship in the coming weeks, because I think they’re a big part of the problem. But moving forward, Calipari has to trust his own top trait, acknowledge his obvious weaknesses, and build a more balanced staff that fills in his blind spots.
(Meantime, I would be demanding that the full-time assistants be watching film or working out players pretty much around the clock, if I were Calipari. My understanding is that right now, assistant video director Andrew Ortelli and graduate assistant Riley Welch are doing most of the actual scouting work.)
You are officially UK basketball czar/GM and as such can mandate three programmatic changes for Cal in the future. What would those three changes be? — Greg T.
How much of this could or does land at the feet of Mitch Barnhart? — John M.
If you could add one non-player to the UK basketball situation that would improve this year’s team, who would it be? Would Kenny Payne’s ability to help Reeves and Fredrick’s confidence be a huge boost? Would John Robic’s scouting and Xs and Os be enough to flip the script? — Michael F. (with related Robic questions from Reed S. and Bob M.)
To that last question, it would probably be Robic. The most damning thing about Kentucky’s fall from power has been the way other coaches walk into postgame press conferences and outline exactly what they saw that could be exploited and how they attacked the Cats accordingly.
To the first question: If I were GM of Kentucky basketball … the first item on my list would already be covered. Kentucky basketball needs a GM. I would argue every major program in the country today does. With the transfer portal and name, image and likeness transforming college sports — and deeply affecting the building, retention and management of your roster every year — you’d better be highly organized with a sharp leader at the top. To his credit, I’ve heard that Calipari pitched something like this to Barnhart in recent years and was shot down.
Which brings us to that question of athletic director culpability, and absolutely some of this lands at Barnhart’s feet. For whatever reason, he and Calipari no longer have a relationship of any significance. They don’t speak to each other, Barnhart attends fewer games and he hasn’t been to a Kentucky basketball practice in ages. His response to Calipari’s regrettable “basketball school” comments this summer was bizarre at best. Calipari wanted to immediately publicly apologize and was told by Barnhart to keep his mouth shut. Barnhart then joined football coach Mark Stoops for a stunning press conference that felt like an hour-long clapback at Calipari. How in the world was fanning those flames productive?
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The bottom line here is that Barnhart signed Calipari to the crazy contract that means they are married to each other, like it or not, for the foreseeable future. So he’d better start talking to his basketball coach and work with him to try to fix this thing. The whole “basketball school” comment came during a Calipari rant about needing a new practice facility to keep up with the Joneses the way Georgia and Alabama football do, even if their current facilities are still fine. Calipari has already secured pledges of about $30 million in private funding — mostly from his former players in the NBA — but Barnhart refuses to let him proceed with planning a facility. He has balked at any request by Calipari to add support staff for basketball (UK’s staff is small compared to other top programs) while handing the football program a blank check.
It feels like a cold war between the AD and basketball coach at Kentucky, which is a terrible look and not remotely helpful. This is where Calipari misses another old ally, former deputy AD DeWayne Peevy, who’s now the AD at DePaul. Peevy used to be the intermediary between Calipari and Barnhart. Today, the basketball program and its coach are on an island.
So bringing this back to that first question, if I were in charge, my three programmatic changes: 1) Create a basketball GM position, who would hopefully help build a bridge between coach and AD but more importantly would oversee every aspect of the program the way an NBA executive would. As such, 2) In addition to an NIL department and player-welfare department (to include mental health), there would be a robust scouting department with staff whose job it is to study film on UK and its opponents and also better evaluate high school and transfer prospects and weed out bad fits. 3) Assuming Calipari is still the head coach, the creation of offensive and defensive coordinator positions would be required.
Cal to Texas seems to have some smoke around it. If it comes true, who does Barnhart call right at this moment to be the next coach? — Wyatt J.
Scott Drew, followed by Scott Drew, and then one more call to Scott Drew. I’m not saying that would necessarily be my list, but I’m fairly confident it is Barnhart’s. The 52-year-old Baylor boss, a strong recruiter and three-time Big 12 Coach of the Year who won a national title in 2021 is Barnhart’s dream candidate. The question is whether he’d leave the peace and pressure-free life of coaching basketball in Waco, Texas, for the intense scrutiny of Kentucky. And if not, who’s next on the list?
I believe Barnhart would at least make Brad Stevens tell him no. He led Butler to a pair of Final Fours, coached the Boston Celtics for eight years and is now the president of basketball operations in Boston — but is still just 46. That one feels like a very long shot, same as 61-year-old Jay Wright, who retired in April after leading Villanova to a fourth Final Four. But I’d also make Wright tell me no before moving on to anyone else.
My educated guess is there’s no way Barnhart would hire Bruce Pearl or Eric Musselman, whose names would nevertheless end up on every “hot board” if the job came open. I’m not sure he’s a fan of Nate Oats’ brash style either, but Barnhart should set that aside and put the Alabama coach high on his list of candidates. Because that dude can coach. And recruit. And plays a style that would energize the fan base. Oats also talks a pretty good game and isn’t afraid of anybody, which would serve him well in a place like this.
Is there anything to be optimistic about for Kentucky basketball the remainder of the year? — Andrew M.
With that game at Tennessee coming up on Saturday? And Kansas still to come? And the rest of the SEC gauntlet ahead? Um. Gulp.
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But OK, fine, I’ll play along. I do think the return of CJ Fredrick from injury and the way he immediately started making shots (he was the only one, unfortunately) against South Carolina is a potentially positive sign. Just as Antonio Reeves hitting four 3s in the blowout loss at Alabama was a teeny, tiny silver lining there. And finally, Fredrick and Reeves got to play together a bunch Tuesday, even if it was only because Cason Wallace went down with back spasms. If there’s any hope for the offense to get going, it involves those two finding a groove and making shots consistently.
That’s been one of the most baffling things about this team: Fredrick (Iowa) and Reeves (Illinois State) have pretty sizable bodies of work at other programs in which they were reliable shot-makers. Just like the inexplicably bad free-throw shooting from a team full of guys who’ve been good free-throw shooters, it’s pretty apparent that something is just off with this team’s confidence.
Oh, and I thought of one other reason for Kentucky fans to hold out hope: North Carolina last season. The Tar Heels lost by 17 to Tennessee, then 29 to UK, then 28 to Miami, then 22 to Wake Forest, then 20 to Duke. They started 12-6, didn’t click until mid-February, then almost won the national championship. It does happen.
Why, in your opinion, have the results this year been so much different than they were last year? Cal essentially has a team similar to what he did last year. Shouldn’t this have just been a plug-and-play and run back what we did last year? What changed? Is it chemistry? Is this Cal’s Team Turmoil? — Caleb T.
This is a popular question, but I’ve been told the players get along. These guys like each other. There’s no fighting over NIL or playing time or any of that. Even when Oscar Tshiebwe gets a little full of himself and questions the fight of some of his teammates — which I wouldn’t if I’d been getting cooked on defense the way he has — they shrug it off, because everyone believes he just wants to win. (But Tshiebwe did apologize to his team for those comments Tuesday night.) When Jacob Toppin said he’d been “in a dark place” recently, he expressed gratitude to several teammates and Calipari for helping him climb out.
I hate to keep bringing this up, but I think if the players have less-than-ideal relationships, they’re with the assistants. There just doesn’t seem to be the kind of deep connection we’ve seen in the past. Players thought of Payne as a big brother or uncle, and I’m not sure those same bonds have formed between this roster and this staff. But considering how many people here have asked about chemistry, it’s obvious something is off about the vibe with these Cats.
How does next year’s class compare to previous freshman classes at UK? Obviously it’s the No. 1 class, but also hear rumblings of it not being a strong class overall? Are they Wall/Cousins/Bledsoe with the ability to take college basketball by storm or should we dampen expectations? — Logan D.
Ah, yes, that 2023 recruiting class. The one big carrot Calipari is still dangling as he pleads, “Just a little bit farther, I promise.” For all the ways it suddenly seems the game has passed him by, Cal did get his fastball back in recruiting this cycle. He signed the No. 1-ranked class in the country, complete with No. 1 prospect DJ Wagner, No. 2 Justin Edwards, No. 6 Aaron Bradshaw, No. 9 Robert Dillingham and No. 28 Reed Sheppard. One of his throwback superclasses, right? Sort of.
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Five-star Rob Dillingham needed Overtime Elite. Kentucky is happy he did
He beat everybody else for the very best of what was available, which he hadn’t done for a while. But not all classes are created equal, and a growing consensus in recruiting circles is that the ’23 talent pool nationally is not great. The top players in this class would probably be farther down the board in more stacked years. Which is to say, no, I don’t think this is a Wall/Cousins/Bledsoe-level class that can come in and dominate from Day 1. It is a really good group that feels like it would fit together and play a style Calipari prefers. There are at least some offensive creators in the mix. With the right returning glue guys and a couple of key transfer portal additions, that might be enough to make a contender again.
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But it is no guarantee. This class might be the one thing Calipari could sell to a place like Texas, which surely has other options that wouldn’t require a PR spin at the introductory press conference. It is not, however, a reason for anyone at Kentucky to bury their heads in the sand and pretend everything will be fine once the latest crop of five-star freshmen arrives.
(Top photo: Jordan Prather / USA Today)
