I apologize to all of you who wrote in about ACC expansion, Super Leagues and TV contracts.
It’s Week 1, folks. Time to talk ball.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Stew, I can’t recall so many of the projected top teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Bama and Georgia) breaking in new quarterbacks, and it seems no one is even questioning this. Of the four situations, which one are you most and least confident about? — Ryan L., Kalamazoo, Mich.
It is more often than you remember, but it’s easy to forget because time after time these programs just churn out another star. Two years ago at this time, Bryce Young had not yet made a college start, JT Daniels, not Stetson Bennett, was expected to lead Georgia and we were all wondering whether C.J. Stroud was capable of replacing Justin Fields.
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Of the four, I’m most confident in Georgia, despite the fact we’ve yet to see Carson Beck in meaningful action. For one thing, he looked great in the Dawgs’ spring game. The offense picked up where it left off against TCU. It’s also encouraging that he ran away with the job; much like Drew Allar at Penn State, there was never much doubt which quarterback would take the first snaps of the season. And most importantly: He’s got Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett to throw to, and four preseason All-SEC linemen blocking for him.
It’s pretty much the ideal scenario for a first-time starting quarterback.
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Carson Beck didn't transfer, and now it's his turn to author a championship script in Athens
And if you’ve been reading my recent stories, you know well which one I’m feeling least confident about: Alabama. It looks like Jalen Milroe will be the first guy out of the gate. Milroe had his moments last season, filling in admirably against Texas A&M, but he was clearly more of a runner than a thrower. After watching Milroe and Ty Simpson compete for 15 practices, Saban felt it was necessary to bring in Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner. You only do that if you think he can win the starting job. He has not.
Combine that with the fact that receiver is arguably Alabama’s biggest question mark, and running back, while deep, doesn’t appear to have a Derrick Henry or Jahmyr Gibbs-level talent, and the situation does not inspire a ton of confidence.
That being said, I did not have a high degree of confidence in Mac Jones when he took over full-time heading into the 2020 season, and all he did was lead the Tide to the most dominant season of the entire Saban era and become a top-15 draft pick. Saban has fooled me before — many, many times.
Stew, USC seems to be the same 2022 version — explosive offense and poor defense. The Trojans led 21-14 at the half against San Jose State! Are you still confident that USC will make the Playoff or are you calling a mulligan? If so, who would you substitute as the fourth Playoff team? — Rob W., Columbia, S.C.
I read a crazy stat that said USC forced seven punts on Saturday compared to forcing 43 all of last season. The result in terms of 28 points allowed wasn’t great, but my eyes told me USC’s defense was way better. How would you assess USC’s defensive performance beyond just the score? — Jay S.
Requisite disclaimer: Never read too much into one game. It may turn out USC is in trouble, or, it may turn out San Jose State has an explosive offense. My only firm takeaway was that USC freshman receiver/returner Zachariah Branch, the star of the show Saturday, is likely going to play a significant role this season.
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Caleb Williams, Zachariah Branch take center stage in USC's opening win
As for that one game, though — I believe both of you are correct. To Rob’s point, it was not a great defensive showing for the Trojans, who allowed too many big plays by preseason All-Mountain West QB Chevan Cordeiro, who completed TDs of 28 and 32 yards to receiver Nick Nash, and running back Quali Conley, who broke a 57-yard run.
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But to Jay’s point, no, it did not look the same as last year’s defense. DC Alex Grinch’s unit was an absolute mess last year, slow to the ball and constantly missing easy tackles. Outside of national sack leader and Chargers second-round pick Tuli Tuipulotu, they lacked difference-making players. If not for incredible turnover luck, it would have been even worse. The Trojans somehow led the nation in turnover margin while ranking 124th in defense (6.5 YPP).
Statistically, USC was not much better Saturday, allowing 6.0 YPP and seven 20-plus yard plays (tied with Vanderbilt for most of Week 0). But they also had seven missed tackles, down from 10.4 per game last season, and their stop rate on the night was 66 percent (eight stops with no points on 12 drives) after finishing a woeful 58.4 percent (105th) on the season last year.
Stats can be deceiving, and that was particularly the case Saturday with their rushing defense allowing 198 yards 27 attempts. The Trojans allowed a 57-yard run in garbage time, and they got gashed several times on Cordeiro scrambles after forcing him out of the pocket. The majority of San Jose State’s intentional rushing attempts went for a few yards.
But the first long Nash touchdown catch was a blown assignment. The second was well-covered by Ceyair Wright until he failed to look for the ball. The Cordeiro scrambles may have just been unavoidable, but it could also be that Grinch wasn’t scheming properly, or didn’t have them properly prepared.
Whatever the case, USC has unquestionably upgraded its talent via the portal. If the Trojans keep having as many lapses as they did Saturday, that is squarely on Grinch.
Hi Stew, is it too far a stretch to assume that Big 12 commish Brett Yormark’s comments in which he admitted he is actively rooting against Texas (and I assume OU by extension?) might be a dog whistle to the refs? I’m not leaping to a full-blown conspiracy theory, but let’s be honest, they’re A) working for the Big 12 and B) human. I’m willing to go out on a limb and guess that Texas’ penalties will be higher than their Big 12 opponents in nearly every game this year. — Scott, Portland, Oregon
Yeah, I get that Yormak was playing to the crowd at a booster function, but that was an unfortunate comment. College football fans all think the officials are out to get their team to begin with, and I’m sure Texas and Oklahoma fans were already on guard for mistreatment in their final year, so the commissioner openly admitting he’s rooting against them is only going to magnify every questionable call.
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Sarkisian responds to Big 12 commish rooting against Texas
But what I try to constantly remind people is that officials care far less about the results of a game than you do. It is a job, one in which every single call they make in a game gets evaluated by their bosses. Those grades then determine the caliber of postseason assignments they receive (i.e., the national championship game), their compensation and whether they’re even invited back.
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Now, you might say, well, Yormark is technically their boss, so, maybe he’ll make sure they get good grades for screwing over the Longhorns. Fair point, except that officials are contractors who often work for multiple conferences, and you best believe those conferences are evaluating their work, too.
Would you intentionally screw up at your job if you wanted to keep it?
Officials get calls wrong, and I have no doubt Big 12 officials will get some wrong this year that negatively affect Texas and Oklahoma, and their fans will scream bloody murder. I just hope and pray none of them directly impact the outcome of a game, because we’ll never hear the end of it.
The biggest upset this weekend is … ? — Adeyemi A, Birmingham, England
Most likely one I never saw coming (Colorado over TCU?), but one to keep an eye on: Texas Tech (-14) at Wyoming. I’ve been singing the Red Raiders’ praises all offseason, but this is quite the tricky opener. A prime-time CBS game in amped-up Laramie — a week before Tech’s much-anticipated date with Oregon — to face a Wyoming team that brings back virtually its entire defense, led by linebacker and preseason MWC Defensive Player of the Year Easton Gibbs.
But it would take some playmakers emerging on the Cowboys’ offense; they ranked 99th in yards per play last season (5.2). Juco transfer Jamari Ferrell won the starting running back job. Is he the guy?
Win or lose, I find it delightful that Wyoming is playing in a CBS prime-time game.
I’m continuing to read the tired narrative that OU will become the “next Nebraska” when we enter the SEC. I look at our 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes and don’t understand it. There’s nobody here predicting an SEC championship in Year 1, but any analysis of what will happen that points to mediocrity is pure drivel. I can assure those doomsday prognosticators among the remaining Hateful 8 in the Big 12 that we can’t wait to leave either. The greatest thing for my 2023 football viewing is having OU/Texas in the Big 12/14 Championship Game in December. — Shannon E.
Wow. Shannon woke up and chose violence today. I look forward to all the lovely comments from the other 12 (maybe even 16) Big 12 fan bases in the comments section.
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The Nebraska analogy is a bit simplistic. The program’s decline has been in large part due to its location, where it is considerably harder to recruit at an elite level. But competitively speaking, there’s no good reason why a program with Nebraska’s considerable fan support, resources and history, shouldn’t at least be in the upper third of the league. Outside of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, there is no other school with a distinct advantage over the Huskers.
Whereas Oklahoma has the opposite problem. It recruits just fine. Venables’ first two classes both ranked in the top 10, and his 2024 group currently sits at No. 11. But whereas in the Big 12, Texas was the only other program capable of recruiting at that level, there will be at least seven in the SEC. That 2022 class that ranked No. 8 in the country would have been No. 4 in the new SEC. And in 2023, the gap in points on 247Sport’s rankings between No. 1 Alabama (328.0) and No. 5 Oklahoma (289.03) was wider than between No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 16 South Carolina (256.14).
Forget Georgia and Alabama — the same roster OU had when it towered over the rest of the Big 12 for most of the 2010s may be indistinguishable from most of the upper half of the SEC. There’s a reason you see such year-to-year volatility at programs like LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida, all of whom regularly recruit at a high level. None of this is to suggest Oklahoma will be “mediocre,” but it’s joining a much deeper roster of national powers where it will be considerably harder to stand out from the crowd.
What would you do if you discovered this week that suddenly you have no access to college football? The TV networks providing coverage have been bought by a new company and they’ve decided not to show ANY coverage, and your legal streaming services have all pulled out.
Well, that’s the reality the UK is going through. ESPN Player has shut down worldwide, and the ESPN network for the UK was bought by TNT Sports (formerly BT Sports). They have decided to show anything but college football for the next 30 days (according to their calendar). What have we done to deserve this lockout? — Tom M., Oxford, UK
A podcast listener brought this to my attention a few weeks ago so I looked into it and yep, sure enough, ESPN Player was shut down in mid-August, and there’s no immediate distribution plan in place for ESPN’s college content — not just in the UK, but throughout Europe. Per an ESPN spokesperson, “We will continue to make ESPN content available to fans across EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) through our wholly-owned linear channels and multi-sport websites and mobile apps. Additionally, ESPN distributes numerous hours of live sports across the region through our affiliate partners.”
While I love visiting Europe, I have never tried to watch American sports in Europe, but this sounds like an absolute nightmare. I’m posting this both as a PSA and so that any intrepid commenters might have some helpful suggestions for our UK/European audience.
How much will Playoff expansion devalue the excitement of big opening weekend matchups like FSU-LSU? Starting next season, the magnitude of those games won’t matter as much with a higher margin of error for making the postseason. A victory on Sunday night could be the difference for a Playoff berth for either team. — Rusty in Arlen, Texas
I know that’s a common concern, but I’m not buying it. For one thing, the notion that one game can make or break a team’s season largely vanished when we moved from the BCS to the CFP nine years ago. Most teams can afford a mulligan. Ohio State lost its last game of the regular season last year and still made the Playoff. Maybe Sunday night’s game helps cost the loser a Playoff spot, but you won’t know that unless they lose a second game late in the season but still win their conference. See: 2019 Oregon.
The other reason I don’t buy it: It’s LSU vs. Florida State! It’s two top-10 teams! If you care at all about college football, you’re watching this game, not because of the stakes but because it’s an exciting matchup. The NFL isn’t necessarily the best comparison, just because the baseline viewership for an average game is considerably higher than in college, but, those teams play 17 games. Not a single one until the last weekend has particularly high stakes. But whenever two big-brand teams play — say Cowboys-Packers in Week 1, Week 6 or Week 11 — it invariably draws a massive audience. Solely because it’s a glamorous matchup.
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Last year’s Sunday night opener between the Noles and Tigers — Brian Kelly’s first game at LSU — drew 7.6 million viewers, the 12th-highest of the regular season, and neither of those teams was even considered a Playoff contender coming into the year. There’s something fun and unique about these early-season intersectional matchups between big-brand schools that don’t often play each other that I don’t think will fade because of a change to the postseason.
Would Iowa’s offense hit its Drive for 325-point benchmark if it played 12 games against USC’s defense? — Andy in Ohio
I think so — but it would be close.
Stew, I have yet to see a publication predict Utah winning the Pac-12 championship this year, despite winning it the last two years with many of the same key pieces in place. Are the Utes destined for a second- or third-place finish in the Pac-12 (or worse), or could they be holding up the hardware in Las Vegas this year? — Russ M., Henderson, Nev.
Utah isn’t viewed like a typical two-time defending champion mostly because it’s been a three-loss champion both years. The Utes earned their titles fair and square, but they aren’t widely regarded as a dominant team because they haven’t proven themselves out of the conference — losing to BYU, San Diego State and Ohio State in 2021 and Florida and Penn State last year. Even within the Pac-12 last year, they were a 7-2 team that won a tiebreaker over Oregon and Washington just to make it to Vegas. I respect the heck out of Kyle Whittingham’s program, but it’s not yet viewed as “the team to beat.”
Then you look at this year’s conference: USC with Caleb Williams and Washington with Michael Penix Jr. are coming off 11-win seasons, while Oregon with Bo Nix is coming off 10 wins, the same as Utah. It’s a crowded field marked by big-name QBs, and Utah’s Cam Rising isn’t even a certainty to play this week against the Gators as he continues recovering from a torn ACL in last year’s Rose Bowl. I’m fascinated to see how he performs, if he performs, on Thursday night. The Utes should have a great defense and a healthy Rising could put them over the top.
It would be very on-brand for the Pac-12 if Utah does go out and dominate this season and finally establishes itself as the undisputed bully of the conference, only for the conference to go away. Even in realignment, Utah was somewhat of an afterthought compared with Oregon and Washington, but as it stands now, assuming Whittingham is still the coach, the Utes may be seen as the top team in the Big 12 as soon as they arrive.
Why is the Week 1 slate pretty “meh” this year? (Outside of LSU-Florida State.) — John G.
It’s the first full Saturday in nine months, in a sport where the most eventful games are often ones you’re least expecting.
I promise you, Week 1 will not be “meh.”
(Top photo of Carson Beck: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
