Cord-cutting is up. Ad sales are down. And layoffs are looming.
Next year is set up to be a gloomy year in sports media. But the business still will see a lot of activity. This is how I see 2023 shaking out.
Amazon wins Sunday Ticket bid
Neither the NFL nor Apple will make enough concessions to complete a deal. Google has yet to show that it will overspend for sports rights and doesn’t start here. That will create an opening for Amazon, which already has a taste of the NFL’s popularity through “Thursday Night Football.” Amazon will complete a deal by the Super Bowl that does not include a stake in the league’s media assets. But Amazon eventually will agree to a joint venture with the league that oversees those media assets.
Amazon made a splash this year with the NFL’s “Thursday Night Football.” Look for it to hit the next gear in sports rights in 2023.getty images
ESPN, Turner exclusive NBA window lapses
For the first time in nearly a quarter century, the NBA’s media rights will hit the open market, and the league will find a ton of interest from traditional media companies like Fox and NBC, and digital players like Apple and Amazon. ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery Sports’ exclusive window runs to the end of the year, which means the NBA will have to wait until 2024 to get a deal done. At that point, ESPN will remain the NBA’s primary partner, with NBC/Peacock and TNT/HBO Max sharing two other packages. Look, also, for the NBA to court younger fans with a short-form digital or social media deal where, say, YouTube gets close-to-live highlight rights and the rights to sell the fourth quarter of games on a pay-per-view basis.
NASCAR renews with Fox, NBC
Digital media companies have engaged NASCAR about its rights. But circuit executives will decide that a digital deal would put too much pressure on team sponsors that need the biggest audience available. This will remain a broadcast-heavy deal, but expect NBC to win the right to put a number of races exclusively on its Peacock streaming service.
ESPN, Fox share expanded CFP rights
The College Football Playoff expands from four to 12 teams in 2024-25, but ESPN holds the rights to the semis and championship through 2026. Look for ESPN and Fox to share early round CFP games for those two years. Lots of companies — Warner Bros. Discovery Sports and Amazon among them — will be waiting in the wings to bid on this package when the whole thing becomes available.
Amazon gets Pac-12 rights
ESPN will be prepared to split the Pac-12’s media rights with Amazon, but will not offer the conference significantly more than it pays for the Big 12. That will lead the Pac-12 to sell almost its entire media package to Amazon for a price that is slightly higher than what the Big 12 gets from ESPN and Fox. The Pac-12 will carve out a handful of prime-time football games that it then will sell to CBS.
NWSL goes to Apple
The professional women’s soccer league will get a lot of attention when it goes to market in 2023, including from the newly formed Scripps Sports. Established media companies won’t offer enough money, though, pushing the league to Apple where it will be paired with MLS. Apple will be particularly attracted by the fact that it can buy all NWSL rights — domestic and international — at the same time.
ESPN renews with UFC
ESPN’s deal with the UFC ends in 2025, but the media company will work out a deal next year to keep the UFC from hitting the open market. Negotiations will start after the Super Bowl and a handshake agreement will come toward the end of the year. The deal will keep the UFC on ESPN into the 2030s.
LIV Golf cuts a U.S. broadcast deal
No, it’s not going to be with Fox, despite rumors that the two were close to a deal last fall. Instead, LIV Golf will make a deal with The CW Network, which is majority owned by Nexstar. LIV will not receive a rights fee, but it will handle the bulk of ad sales. LIV also will handle all production.
Netflix does not get into sports
Netflix will start to carry live events (think reality shows, comedy specials and game shows), but it will not get into live sports in 2023. This is good news for the business because it will give Netflix a chance to experiment with live ad-supported programming, a first step before it takes a live sports plunge.
DirecTV renews with Sinclair’s RSNs
The biggest deal in sports media will come in the fall, when DirecTV’s contract to carry the Bally Sports RSNs expires. This carriage battle will generate a lot of noise, but both sides will reach an agreement. DirecTV is branded as the distributor for sports fans, so it needs to keep the RSNs. And Sinclair’s RSNs can’t exist without DirecTV carriage.
Tom Brady will not be in the Fox booth in 2023
He may keep playing, or he may retire. It doesn’t matter. He will not be in Fox’s top NFL booth next year because the network’s current No. 1 booth — Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen — have jelled into a top team.
John Ourand can be reached at jourand@sportsbusinessjournal.com. Follow him on Twitter @Ourand_SBJ and read his weekly newsletter and listen to his weekly podcast.
