Jaden Rashada’s flip to Florida and why we need to shut up about NIL: Recruiting mailbag

GAINESVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 15: Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier looks on during the game between the LSU Tigers and the Florida Gators on October 15, 2022 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field in Gainesville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Ari Wasserman
Nov 15, 2022

Recruiting never stops. Neither do your questions.

And if we didn’t get to your question, don’t be discouraged! We will be addressing some on “Stars Matter,” our weekly recruiting podcast, which can be found on the feed of “The Andy Staples Show.” Look for new episodes every Thursday morning.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

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At what point are you going to start acknowledging the amount of money going to recruits? The fact that a Florida booster pre-announced a major recruiting flip screams payoff. — Justin D. 

The recruiting flip being referred to came from four-star quarterback Jaden Rashada of Pittsburg (Calif.) High. He flipped his commitment from Miami to Florida on Thursday evening. The day before Rashada announced his decision, Florida booster Hugh Hatchcock posted on his Twitter account: “Tomorrow will be a Great Day Gator Fans!!!”

There is no question that NIL is playing a factor here. Everybody knows that because it doesn’t have to be a secret anymore. This isn’t 1994 or 2020. This is 2022, and NIL is a major part of the recruiting game. So when you ask me when am I going to start acknowledging it, I’m not sure what you mean. Do you mean stop writing about recruiting and yell, “He got paid!” any time a recruit picks a school? Or do we all just understand it’s a legal part of the game and be happy for prospects who are cashing in on their talents?

The real question here is: When are fans going to accept it’s part of the game now? I know it’s going to take some time to get used to it because it’s been drilled in our minds that it’s some terrible, felonious offense if a collegiate athlete is compensated.

Yes, the vague and unenforceable NCAA rule says a player cannot be financially induced to go to a school. And yes, you can technically scream about how certain schools are cheating because they — or, more specifically, the collectives associated with them — are promising to write checks to prospects if they come to their programs. But what can be classified as inducement in an enforceable way? How is that any different than a coach giving a PowerPoint presentation to a recruit about what his current players make in the NIL realm? Money is always part of the sales pitch, regardless of what form it takes.

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Money is what drives people. Money is what gets results.

The most hilarious thing to me about this NIL bickering is that when Rashada initially committed to Miami, Florida fans were losing their minds. There were reports that Rashada inked a $9.5 million deal to be a Hurricane, and the internet went bonkers. Fast forward a few months, and now the shoe is on the other foot and everyone else is freaking out about what Florida might be offering or that the Gators are cheating. Sigh.

Nobody is cheating. They are recruiting in 2022.

Shortly after Rashada committed to Miami, he participated in the Elite 11 Finals in Los Angeles. I was there, and I asked him a question in a one-on-one setting about the NIL rumors. He looked at me, paused and passionately said he would love to talk to me but isn’t talking about that. I understood. Why? Because here was a teenager who got dragged online for much of the previous week about being a bad person, a cheater and going to a program that stinks and only gets players because it writes fat checks. You could see by the look on his face that he was hurt by it.

After it was over, I got to thinking about Rashada. Why should this prospect — during what should be the happiest week of his life — be made to feel terrible about his decision? Why, as consumers of the sport, do we forget these are real people who are just trying to put food on their tables the way we do?

Can’t we just shut up about it?

Yes, NIL is a factor. It is a factor, at least to some extent, in every recruitment that is written about online. And if it were your son, it would be a factor for you and him, too.

The problem with these deals is they aren’t public information. I got called a bad journalist in the comments last week because I didn’t have facts and figures for handshake NIL deals, as if that is something anyone could attain. It’s not on the internet anywhere because they are personal business dealings — the same way I’m happy my tax return isn’t online. So when you say acknowledge it, does that mean people won’t be happy unless I write, “The reason this prospect chose this school is because he got showered with dirty money”?

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The money isn’t even dirty. Relax.

That’s not what our recruiting coverage is going to be. It’s going to be an analysis of who is going where and what recruiting classes mean for schools. If that upsets you, find a new sport to read about. NIL is here. It’s legal, and it is a motivational factor in recruitments. End of story.

How many dudes does it take to reach the “dudes everywhere” threshold? Is it a certain composite rating? Certain number of five-star players? Break this down for us. Also, Texas A&M is directly insulting your “stars matter” theme. — Kyle W. 

The “dudes everywhere” threshold is a really high standard. If they are everywhere, that means you’re a program that likely brings in roughly 10 top-100 players every year. When you watch Georgia play, the Bulldogs swallow their competition like a snake with a rat because no matter what the opponent does, Georgia has a dude there to neutralize it.

So, to me, to have “dudes everywhere,” you probably have to have at least 20 top-100 players on your 85-man roster. It’s not that the top-100 recruits are the only good players, but it creates the type of roster where anyone who gets on the field during a fall Saturday is either an elite-level prospect or a player who developed to the degree that they are playing instead of one. If you look at the 247Sports Team Talent Composite this year, you’ll find Georgia, Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have a combined 53 five-star prospects on their rosters. That is pretty remarkable given there are typically only 32 five-star prospects in a recruiting cycle.

What do you notice about those four teams? Two are still alive in the national title hunt (Georgia and Ohio State) and two aren’t (Alabama and Clemson). And, as your question pointed out, neither is Texas A&M.

Let this be a reminder that talented teams that underachieve aren’t a hit to the “stars matter” mantra. Having a ton of good players on your roster isn’t a guarantee you will have an elite-level team. It is, however, a necessity if you want to win a national championship in this system.

What would really hit the “stars matter” mantra is if a team like Tennessee — which ranks No. 19 in the talent composite this year — won the national title. Even that would be understandable to a certain extent, given it’s a top-20 roster talent-wise, but it still would lower my perception of the type of roster it takes to win it all. There’s a reason no team has come out of nowhere during the College Football Playoff era to win a national title. Good teams underachieving happens all the time. Teams with poor talent never win the national title. Stars matter.

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Is it possible to rename “stars matter” to “dudes everywhere”? — Asa M. 

That’s a better name, honestly. And I hope I can make “dudes everywhere” my new brand. Let me run it up the flagpole and I’ll get back to you.

How many more disappointing losses would it take for Arch Manning to reconsider Texas? — Chris M. 

In this crazy sport in which schadenfreude is more prevalent than any other sport, I know the entire country is sitting back and hoping the five-star quarterback out of New Orleans will reopen his recruitment. Honestly, could you imagine if Arch Manning decommitted and put himself back on the market in late November or early December? I don’t know if Twitter has enough bandwidth to support the pandemonium that would ensue.

I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but it’s probably not going to happen. Manning and his team decided Texas was the place for him. They didn’t put a contingency on it that the Longhorns had to win X number of games. Manning knew what he was getting into, and I’m sure he views himself as the player who is going to turn this whole thing around.

Maybe I am misguided, but with that young offensive line getting reps and that defense showing out on national television, I’m not sure the loss to TCU had the negative impact many thought it would.

Any truth to the rumors about Notre Dame possibly flipping a committed 2023 quarterback? — Michael M. 

As a Pitt fan, I feel as though I’ve been kicked in the gut, losing a four-star quarterback commit in November. Is there anything worse that can happen to a team in the recruiting cycle than losing the quarterback this late in the process? Certainly doesn’t feel that way. — Kevin S. 

First question: Yes.  Second question: No.

Four-star quarterback Kenny Minchey of Hendersonville (Tenn.) Pope John Paul II decommitted from Pittsburgh on Monday. Rated the No. 253 overall player and the No. 12 quarterback in the 2023 class, he is one of only two top-40 QBs in the country who isn’t committed right now. But that isn’t going to last long. Notre Dame immediately sits in the driver’s seat in his recruitment, and it’s only a matter of time, it seems, before the Irish land his commitment.

Notre Dame’s 2023 class ranks No. 3 nationally and has 23 commitments, including eight who rank in the top 125 nationally. However, there are no quarterbacks in the class. Being in a position with a quarterback of this stature in November is a huge opportunity for the Irish if they can close the deal. This is an important recruiting win in the making for Notre Dame, which is about to sign one of its best classes in the modern recruiting era. Kudos to Marcus Freeman. What a heck of a cycle he’s having in his first go-around as the coach.

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As it pertains to Pitt, it’s a shame. You’re right, Kevin. Losing the centerpiece of your class this late in the process has worst-case-scenario vibes. I’m not sure what Pat Narduzzi is going to do, but you can bet the Panthers are going to be in the market for a quarterback. The problem? All of the quarterbacks Pitt would likely consider are already committed, so Narduzzi is left with three choices: try to flip someone, take a quarterback who is below the program’s standards because it needs the body or hope the transfer portal spits out a viable option.

None of those options are very good for Pitt.

(Photo of Billy Napier: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Ari Wasserman

Ari Wasserman is a senior writer for The Athletic covering college football and recruiting nationally. He previously spent 10 years covering Ohio State for The Athletic and Cleveland.com, starting on the Buckeyes beat in 2009. Follow Ari on Twitter @AriWasserman