Texas, Oklahoma SEC-bound in 2024 as tone shifts in Big 12? What we’re hearing

By Stewart Mandel, Max Olson and Andy Staples 

This story has been updated since publication with new information.

At the Big 12’s basketball media day in October, new commissioner Brett Yormark spoke definitively about Oklahoma and Texas’ timeline for joining the SEC. “They’re going to be here through ‘25,” he told reporters. “They’ve committed themselves in advance of me getting here, and they’ve reiterated that commitment.”

Behind the scenes, though, that’s no longer the case.

Multiple sources confirmed to The Athletic that discussions have been ongoing for several months regarding the Red River rivals leaving the Big 12 a year earlier than planned, in time for the 2024 football season. Big 12 officials held a meeting last week in Las Vegas, and in the portion of the meeting in which Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte and Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione were recused because officials were discussing future business, “momentum” emerged for an early exit, according to an administrator within the SEC. An administrator within the Big 12 confirmed that the tone in the league regarding this topic shifted following that meeting.

“They’re definitely engaged on it and moving towards something where they will leave after next season,” a Big 12 school official said.

“It’s likely they are leaving early,” said a person with knowledge of the discussions.

One Big 12 school official said he believes there will be resolution in a matter of weeks, not months, and that the issue may be contributing to a delay in releasing the league’s 2023 football schedule. That official echoed others who believe an earlier divorce would benefit all parties involved.

The Action Network first reported on the discussions.

The timing of such a move would make sense on several fronts. The SEC’s new television deal with ESPN begins that season. So will the 12-team College Football Playoff. And if it happens, the SEC’s expansion to 16 teams would coincide with the Big Ten’s, with the league adding USC and UCLA in ’24. Meanwhile, four new schools — BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — will be beginning Big 12 play next season.

Signed, sealed, delivered!

🚨 Big 12 Conference Adds Four New Membershttps://t.co/BvuPMeRLbx

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 10, 2021

But there are several hurdles still to be cleared in the negotiations among the various parties. Here’s where things stand, based on conversations this week with numerous sources.

Why were Texas and Oklahoma waiting until 2025?

At the time the schools announced their intent to leave the Big 12, in July 2021, they remained bound by the conference’s Grant of Rights for another four years. Both schools announced then and have consistently reiterated since then their intent to honor that commitment, ostensibly to avoid incurring hefty buyout fees.

According to the Big 12’s bylaws, a departing member would forfeit its final two years of conference revenue distributions. Given the conference distributed an average $42.6 million per school in 2021-22 and those payouts usually increase annually, each school’s bill could conceivably approach $90 million.

However, negotiations are underway to determine a reduced amount that would satisfy both the conference and Oklahoma and Texas. The programs will see a significant increase in revenue once they join the SEC.

Why would the Big 12 agree to a reduced buyout?

Multiple sources indicated that both sides are eager to move on from each other. The Big 12’s new members arrive next season, creating an awkward two-year period with 14 schools, and the league recently gained clarity on its financial future post-Oklahoma/Texas, signing a six-year $2.28 billion extension with ESPN and Fox that will begin in 2025.

But the remaining members won’t let OU and Texas go if it means seeing their 2024-25 check from the conference dip. The league’s network partners would be owed compensation for lost value in that final year of their current contracts — and Texas and Oklahoma happen to be the most valuable members. Former commissioner Bob Bowlsby told the Texas state legislature last year that the two schools account for roughly 50 percent of the current contract’s value, which as of 2019-20 was worth about $25 million per school.

More often than not, when a school leaves a conference, the two sides wind up negotiating a reduced exit fee.

Texas A&M and Missouri each paid a reduced fee of $12.4 million to leave the Big 12 in 2012, about half the full penalty at the time. Cincinnati, Houston and UCF agreed to $18 million settlements with the AAC earlier this year. A person familiar with the discussions suggested that number amounts to about 1.75x the media revenue they would have received from the AAC over two years.

“So that’s $45 million or $50 million (for a Big 12 school) right there.”

What role do ESPN and Fox play in these decisions?

While neither TV partner can force a conference member to stay or leave, they directly impact the negotiations.

Fox’s part is fairly straightforward. It will expect a substantial makegood if Texas and Oklahoma leave early. Worth noting: Fox has the first pick of Big 12 games in 2024, and that pick is often the Red River Showdown. A reduced payment amount or some other financial compensation would need to be negotiated.

ESPN, meanwhile, will own those schools’ 2024 rights whether they remain in the Big 12 or move to the SEC. There’s long been speculation the network would want OU and Texas in the SEC sooner to be part of the Game of the Week package that currently airs on CBS. ESPN is paying a reported $330 million a year for that game alone.

However, those rights would be a lot less expensive if the schools remain in the Big 12 for another year. SEC schools made $54.6 million in conference revenue last year compared with $42.6 million for Big 12 schools, and that number will increase with the new ESPN deal. And the SEC is attempting to renegotiate that deal to an even higher number, the SEC administrator said, as it was completed before Texas and Oklahoma signed on, and because it will likely soon go from eight to nine conference games.

How will this all play out?

Two Big 12 ADs expressed confidence a deal would be reached. Simply put, they need OU and Texas to agree to a high enough exit fee to make the remaining members and their network partners whole.

A person with knowledge of the discussions believes they’ll get there.

“The compensation for (leaving early) would cancel out a gap that exists in their television deals for the remaining eight that were original Big 12 members,” he said.

A noteworthy landmark is fast approaching. Per Big 12 bylaws, a member must give at least an 18-month notice of its departure date. That letter would have to arrive by Dec. 31 if they intend to join the SEC on July 1, 2024.

But like all things in realignment, that, too, could be negotiated.

— The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach and Seth Emerson contributed to this report.