Two years ago, no one would have predicted Jim Harbaugh would soon take Michigan to the College Football Playoff. Two years later, he’s now reached more Playoffs than Ryan Day, James Franklin and Jimbo Fisher during that time combined.
How did this happen?
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
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Why were you so wrong about Jim Harbaugh? — Connor W.
Because I’m not a psychic?
Where does Jim Harbaugh’s/Michigan’s renaissance rank in all-time surprises? They were left for dead after 2020 and, as a Michigan fan, it felt like they’d never be able to beat OSU. — Nolan W.
I can think of coaches who took over rebuilding situations, struggled for several years, then took off to a degree no one could have possibly predicted — Bill Snyder at Kansas State, Bill McCartney at Colorado and Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech come to mind. But Harbaugh’s arc doesn’t match those. His has been more like a three-act play.
Act I: Come in hot and spend the first several years stuck in the “close but not quite” zone. Act II: Badly regress to the point of taking a 50 percent pay cut to justify the school even bringing him back. Act III: Without warning, skyrocket to the point of going 25-2 over two seasons, win back-to-back Big Ten titles, and not just beat Ohio State but wallop them twice.
One reason you don’t see many trajectories like his is that coaches whose programs dip like that rarely make it to Act III. A notable exception recently was Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly, who went to the BCS championship game in his third season, had calls for his head after going 4-8 in his seventh season, but stayed and led the program to five straight double-digit win seasons and two Playoff berths. Though I would not put either his 2018 or 2020 Playoff teams on the same level as this year’s Michigan team.
Two hindsight-is-20/20 takeaways: 1) Harbaugh’s program from 2015-19 was pretty darn good but continued losses to his rivals and failure to reach the Big Ten title game overshadowed most everything else. I was certainly guilty of that trap. And 2) It’s become increasingly evident that the shortened 2020 COVID seasons in the Big Ten and Pac-12 were not an accurate indicator of anything. See: Northwestern and Indiana finishing in the top 12, Clay Helton reaching the Pac-12 title game and — my favorite — Karl Dorrell winning Pac-12 coach of the year.
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Who knows what Michigan’s record might have been had it played a “normal” 12-game season. Probably not 12-0, but perhaps something that left Wolverines fans more optimistic that a breakthrough was coming.
As an Ohio State fan, I am grateful for this opportunity for redemption in the Playoff (thank you, South Carolina and Utah). I genuinely believe that this unexpected second chance will bring out the best against Georgia. I know that it’s not the same as 2014, but I love that not many people are giving us a chance. Appreciate you and Bruce Feldman giving us at least a 30 percent chance at an upset. Tell me how we actually pull it off though. — Vidya S., Seattle
Well, it starts with the fact that Ohio State is one of the few teams talented enough to compete with Georgia. Kirby Smart’s program has reached that rarefied air where it is just so much better than most of the teams it plays that it is virtually upset-proof. The Dawgs have lost three games over the last three seasons, and two were to Alabama. (The other was Florida in 2020.) Ohio State will be the most talented team Georgia has faced this season by a healthy margin — not Oregon, Tennessee or LSU.
But of course, for much of the season, Ohio State has not played like one of the three or four most talented programs in the country. The Buckeyes do not impose their will on people like Georgia and Michigan do. They have obvious holes and execution issues on defense but were fortunate to play a schedule mostly devoid of elite QBs that could exploit it. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy was the highest-rated they’ve faced, and even he’s No. 20. Georgia’s Stetson Bennett is No. 23.
But the thing about a Dec. 31 semifinal is you never know how a team might evolve over those four weeks of practice between games. It’s a great chance for the staff to step back, analyze and make adjustments. You know Ryan Day and Jim Knowles have been rewatching that Michigan film over and over. Also, sometimes younger players wind up having bigger impacts than they did during the regular season – see Tua Tagovailoa in the 2017 national title game or Clemson freshman WR Justyn Ross in the 2018 semis and final. Ohio State surely has some former blue-chippers who’ve been running on the scout team all season and may emerge as possible postseason contributors.
Most importantly, though: The three QBs to beat Georgia since 2020 are Mac Jones (first-round pick), Kyle Trask (second-round pick) and Bryce Young (soon-to-be first-round pick). C.J. Stroud has been billed all season as being at or above those guys’ level, and he’s got Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka to throw to. The only way I see Ohio State beating Georgia is for the Buckeyes’ O-line to give Stroud great protection, and for him and those receivers to do their best impression of Young, Jameson Williams and John Metchie in the 2021 SEC championship.
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But that would require Stroud to have a much better big-game performance than we saw from him in either the Penn State or Michigan games this season. Because Georgia’s defense is on another planet from the injury-ravaged Utah unit he and Jaxon Smith-Njigba lit up in the Rose Bowl.
When the dust settles on the 2022-23 transfer season, how many of the dozens of QBs that transferred will actually be in a better place than if they’d stayed put? How many of the teams will be in a better place than if they just hung onto their previous QB (instead of getting a new one because they had to)? — BD G.
With the caveat that there are way more notable QBs in the portal already than there were all of last offseason — Devin Leary, DJ Uiagalelei, Spencer Sanders and many more — let’s just look back at the 2021-22 cycle and see how QBs/their teams fared.
I’m including only Power 5 and high-level Group of 5 QBs with starting experience who entered the portal last offseason. I can’t promise this list didn’t miss someone, but it’s at least fairly close.
QBs/teams that thrived: Caleb Williams (Oklahoma to USC), Michael Penix Jr. (Indiana to Washington), Jayden de Laura (Washington State to Arizona), Bo Nix (Auburn to Oregon), Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma to South Carolina), Jayden Daniels (Arizona State to LSU), Adrian Martinez pre-injury (Nebraska to Kansas State), John Rhys Plumlee (Ole Miss to UCF).
Mixed results: JT Daniels (Georgia to West Virginia), Kedon Slovis (USC to Pitt), Jaxson Dart (USC to Ole Miss).
No better off: Dillion Gabriel (UCF to Oklahoma), Casey Thompson (Texas to Nebraska), Max Johnson (LSU to Texas A&M), Connor Bazelak (Missouri to Indiana), Gerry Bohanon pre-injury (Baylor to USF), Zach Calzada (Texas A&M to Auburn), Grant Wells (Marshall to Virginia Tech).
As I’ve found with most things in football — recruiting rankings, NFL draft picks and now transfer hit rate — the success rate is around 50 percent. Perhaps not coincidentally: Only 50 percent of teams win a football game.
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Some of these guys ended up being among the most impactful players in the country. Caleb Williams was a fairly obvious candidate, but no one would have predicted in August that Penix, Nix and Daniels would have the kind of seasons they did. Also, just because a guy fell into “no better off” doesn’t mean he should not have transferred. Thompson, Johnson, Bohanon and Calzada would not have started had they stayed, and I can’t blame Gabriel and Wells for wanting a shot at the Power 5 level.
Have you ever seen the fortune of a football program turn so dramatically in one day than it did for CU on Sunday? We had no hope as late as Saturday afternoon, and now many highly ranked recruits and transfers want to play for Coach Prime. I haven’t seen anything like it in 40 years. — Mark W.
It’s incredible. USC unexpectedly landing Lincoln Riley on the Sunday after Thanksgiving last year was similar in many ways, especially after USC fans were so beaten down from the Clay Helton era, but there’s a big difference between USC and Colorado. The Trojans went to the Rose Bowl as recently as 2016. And if it wasn’t Riley, USC would have hired another big-name coach. Not that I think Matt Campbell would have pulled off what Riley did at USC this season.
But Colorado was unquestionably the worst Power 5 program in the country this season, has been almost completely irrelevant for nearly 20 years and had left its fan base/former players/alumni feeling almost completely hopeless. Now in an instant, Colorado is arguably the most interesting program in the country; the No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2022, Travis Hunter, says he’s coming; a respected Group of 5 head coach, Sean Lewis, quit his job to be Coach Prime’s OC; and I fully expect an all-star team of other assistants and transfers will soon be on their way.
Now — none of this guarantees he’ll be successful. It’s not like when Alabama, mired in 15 years of mediocrity, hired Nick Saban from the Dolphins, and you knew it was only a matter of time before the Crimson Tide became a national power. But if nothing else, Colorado football is now exciting and interesting, and it’s been a long, long, long, long time since I’ve been able to say that.
When will we have our first bowl-selected team be forced to forfeit for not having enough eligible players due to transfers and opt-outs? — Stoney B.
It’s coming. Maybe not this year, but next.
With all due respect to Stetson Bennett, who is leading the country’s top-ranked team, I totally expected Blake Corum or Max Duggan to be named first in the alphabetical list. Was that as surprising to anyone else? Nicole Auerbach tweeted that some just vote for the QB of the No. 1 team. Is that really a thing? Seems pretty lazy. — Andrew N.
This one’s tricky because I’m reticent in general to criticize a college player, and I do believe Bennett had an excellent season. His days as the overachieving walk-on are long behind him, and he’s not just the starting quarterback of the No. 1 team. It’s worth highlighting in particular that four of his five highest passer ratings of the season came against the four Georgia opponents that finished in the Top 25 (Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU). His combined stats in that game: 75 percent completions, 296.0 yards per game, 10 TDs, 0 INTs.
Pret-ty, pre-ty good.
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Having said that — it was the most surprised I’ve been when a finalist’s name popped up on the screen since Jabrill Peppers in 2016.
I wouldn’t call voters “lazy” necessarily for putting Bennett on their ballot, but the criteria is simply “most outstanding player in college football,” and I would not call him one of the four most outstanding players in the country. In fact, there are two other players on his own team, DT Jalen Carter and TE Brock Bowers, and two quarterbacks in his own conference, Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker and Alabama’s Bryce Young, who more aptly fit that description.
But mine is just one opinion. And I am merely a sportswriter. I did find it noteworthy that in the coaches’ All-SEC team announced Tuesday — not media, but actual football coaches — Bennett was second team, behind Hooker. I’m sure not a single one of them would suggest Bennett is more talented than Bryce Young, but they scout these guys the most closely and apparently believe Bennett had a better season.
They seem to be in near agreement that he’s at least worthy of consideration.
Outside of the New Year’s Six, what two bowl games are you most looking forward to? — Todd T.
The Alamo Bowl (Texas-Washington), because I don’t believe enough people east of the Rockies have seen Michael Penix Jr. do his thing yet, and the Fenway Bowl (Cincinnati-Louisville), because it’s great to see the former Metro/Great Midwest/Conference USA/Big East rivals reunited.
And because it’s going to be super awkward with the Satterfield thing.
I’m sure you’ll get tons of new hire questions, but what do you make of the Scott Satterfield to Cincinnati move? Both this hire for UC football and Louisville’s next are critical for their programs’ futures, and this is rookie-AD Josh Heird’s second major hire in months. — Sam S.
I find it bizarre and underwhelming. Mind you, I was as high on Satterfield as you can possibly get when Louisville hired him from Appalachian State — I ended up whiffing terribly on nearly that entire class of hires — but at this point, his record is his record. In four seasons he was 25-24 overall, and 15-18 in ACC play — and now he’s going to take over a soon-to-be Big 12 program and lead it to glory? … How?
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It’s never a good sign when the fan base of the school he’s leaving is relieved.
And the shame of it is Cincinnati was arguably one of the five best jobs to come open this cycle, behind Nebraska, Wisconsin and Auburn but as good or better than any other school in terms of recent success, resources and long-term potential. They were paying Luke Fickell $5 million a year, which would have ranked fourth in the Big 12 this season, and while Satterfield got $3.4 million, the school announced his assistant pool will be $7.25 million. That’s nearly the exact number Oklahoma paid its staff this season.
In other words, the school is taking advantage of that coming influx of Big 12 revenue to make a big investment in football. Surely it could have landed a more confidence-inspiring coach. I question whether AD John Cunningham was more interested in making a big splash by hiring a sitting Power 5 head coach than hiring the best guy for the job. Somehow Liberty made a more exciting hire in Jamey Chadwell than a Big 12 school coming off a Playoff appearance.
Louisville is presumably Jeff Brohm’s job if he wants it, and it’d be a huge win for that program to bring their native son home. But even if Brohm stays at Purdue, Louisville is also a good job and Heird should have a strong pool of candidates.
Stewart, is there any chance that the CFP will reconsider requiring that the top 4 seeds in the planned 12-team Playoff format be conference champions? If that format was used this year, Clemson (ranked 7th) would be the No. 3 seed and Utah (ranked 8th) would be the No. 4 seed. Last year, Georgia would have been the No. 5 seed, making it harder for them to become national champions. — Brad S., Irvington, N.Y.
I tweeted on Sunday that I believe this to be a flaw in the system, and was met overwhelmingly by respondents who disagreed with me. Most said they’re OK with it because it will place more value on the conference championship games, that it largely takes that decision out of the committees’ hands, and also, this is how they do it in the NFL, where the division champions get the top four seeds regardless of record.
Sounds good in theory. But the CFP is going to more closely resemble the NCAA tournament, which also has a committee and Top 25 rankings, than the NFL Playoffs, which is completely objective. Arbitrarily rewarding four conference champs but not the others is going to lead to competitively distorted brackets. It will be like when Wichita State is a top-10 team in KenPom but only a 10-seed in the bracket and the poor 2-seed that draws them gets a much tougher path than the others.
Case in point: This year, No. 2 seed Michigan would arguably have a tougher path than No. 6 seed Ohio State. Yes, the Buckeyes have to play an extra game, but it’s at home against a Penn State team it already beat. In the quarterfinals, though, Michigan would likely face an Alabama team that sits No. 5 in the actual rankings (but is seeded seventh) while Ohio State would get No. 7 Clemson (seeded third).
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How does that make sense?
Furthermore, the committee’s one-spot difference between No. 8 Utah and No. 9 Kansas State has the gigantic effect of giving Utah a top-four seed and a first-round bye while the ninth-seeded Wildcats, also a conference champion, not only have to play in the first-round but play a road game at 8-seed Tennessee.
This also makes no sense.
Why can’t it be enough that the conference championship games are play-ins to the bracket — a pretty darn big prize for teams like Utah and K-State that would not have otherwise made it — without manipulating the seeding so drastically? Byes should go to the top-4 teams, not the top-2 teams, then two other teams that had the good fortune to not be in Georgia or Ohio State’s conferences.
Can we agree making Georgia earn the SEC crown by playing Alabama and Bryce Young is an infinitely more appealing storyline than wondering if Ryan Day and C.J. Stroud have that ‘IT’ factor? — Themanebro
No, we cannot.
(Top photo: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
