San Diego State’s realignment moment approaches: Are Aztecs ready for Power 5 football?

San Diego has the feel of a sports boomtown right now.

On May 18, the city received a Major League Soccer expansion franchise. In April, San Diego State men’s basketball played in the national championship game. Fernando Tatis Jr. is back with the Padres for the first time since 2021. Manchester United will play Ryan Reynolds’ Wrexham FC at Snapdragon Stadium in July, and the stadium will host a Gold Cup semifinal that month as well. Since the Chargers left in 2017, the sports scene has rebounded in a big way.

But the final transformative sports move set to hit the city this year remains without a launch date: San Diego State’s invitation to join a Power 5 conference.

To talk to people around San Diego State, the Mountain West and elsewhere in college sports, an invite is all but inevitable after USC and UCLA signed up for the Big Ten. The Pac-12’s drawn-out media rights negotiations have slowed the process, but whether it’s the Pac-12 or the Big 12, a monumental move is likely on the way.

“One or the other is going to happen,” San Diego State athletic director John David Wicker told The Athletic in April. “We’re excited for the opportunity, and we’ve done a lot of work to prepare for that.”

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It’s no fluke that SDSU has reached this moment. It’s the result of an investment in athletics over multiple decades, ideal geography and the selection of the right coaches at the right time.

The Aztecs made just three NCAA men’s basketball tournament appearances between their move to Division I in 1970 and Steve Fisher’s arrival in 1999. Aztec football played in three bowl games between its joining the WAC in 1978 and Brady Hoke’s arrival in 2009. Now, San Diego State leads the nation in combined football and men’s basketball winning percentage since 2010, at 73.7 percent. SDSU football is 7-4 against the Pac-12 since 2016.

“People talk about how basketball brought athletics and the campus together more than it had been in the past,” said Wicker, whose first stint at SDSU began in 2011. “Now we’ve continued to make investments in basketball and football where we expect to compete for conference championships and make a Final Four run.”

The construction of Viejas Arena, the home of Aztecs basketball, in 1997 was the first major investment, and the completion of Snapdragon Stadium in 2022 on the site of the old Qualcomm Stadium was the crown jewel.

“Snapdragon is the destination stadium in San Diego,” Wicker said of the $310 million university-owned building.

With competitive facilities and a prime location, the university’s long-term future is bright.

“I always thought the Pac-12 would not ask us in with UCLA and USC because they would put us on equal footing, and we would be too great a competitor to let in,” SDSU basketball coach Brian Dutcher said in March. “So now that they’re gone and Southern California has a really good team sitting in San Diego, I would think we would be desirable for the Pac-12, the Big 12, a lot of conferences.”

Basketball is at its peak. Football? That’s a bit of a different question. The program is coming off a disappointing 7-6 season. Making bowl games isn’t the standard anymore. Can Hoke and the Aztecs get back into conference championship contention before a potential conference move?

Mayden (18) provided a desperately needed spark behind center, but the Aztecs still face big questions on offense. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

Hoke sparked San Diego State’s football resurgence. In 2009, he inherited a program coming off 10 consecutive non-winning seasons, won nine games in his second year and then left for Michigan. Rocky Long took over and won at least 10 games four times over the next nine years. Long brought Hoke back to the staff as the defensive line coach, and Hoke took over when Long retired from head coaching after the 2019 season.

The Aztecs are 23-12 through three seasons of Hoke’s second stint, two mediocre years sandwiched around a 12-2 campaign in 2021. SDSU may have won that 2021 Mountain West championship game if not for the absence of 20 Aztec players due to COVID-19 protocols, but the 2022 season was a roller coaster.

“7-6 is not acceptable,” Hoke said. “We understand that as a program and a team. Every guy in that locker room has done a really good job of the work that needs to be put in. We were a little bit all over the place last year.”

For a decade, SDSU’s football identity was built on an elite defense and a below-average offense that complemented each other, but its offensive sluggishness reached a breaking point in 2022. Offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski was fired after a 2-3 start that saw SDSU fail to pass for more than 65 yards in any of its four games against FBS opponents. Running backs coach Jeff Horton was promoted to offensive coordinator, and former SDSU star quarterback Ryan Lindley joined the staff as quarterbacks coach.

The offense improved, especially the passing attack, as SDSU won five of its next six games. Horton retired after the season, and Lindley was promoted to offensive coordinator. Quarterback Jalen Mayden is also back; the former Mississippi State transfer switched to safety for the 2022 season but flipped back to QB after the coordinator change. Mayden started the last eight games, completing 59 percent of his passes for 2,030 yards with 15 total touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He threw for 291 yards in a win at eventual MWC champion Fresno State, but three of those 10 interceptions came in the bowl loss to Middle Tennessee. Mayden is the No. 1 right now, but there will be competition in fall camp.

“He just has to be more consistent,” Hoke said. “He had some big-time games and he had some games where he has to be more patient or assertive.”

What will a Lindley offense look like? Despite the putrid start to the 2022 season, SDSU finished 83rd nationally in yards per pass attempt, its highest mark since 2018. Meanwhile, the Aztecs were 81st in yards per rush, their lowest finish since 2019. Hoke says the offense will still be built around physicality, but this should be a unit that actually tries to move the ball through the air.

Who catches those passes remains a major question, however. Gone are receivers Jesse Matthews and Tyrell Shavers, who accounted for around 50 percent of the production with a combined 83 catches and 1,151 yards. The rest of the team had 1,209 receiving yards. Receivers expected to fill those roles include former walk-on Mekhi Shaw (29 catches in 2022), senior Brionne Penny (12 catches) and Western Carolina transfer Raphael Williams Jr.

Senior tight end Mark Redman earned second-team All-Mountain West honors last year, and some running backs could be spread out wide, giving SDSU options to use more 12 or 13 personnel (with multiple tight ends in the formation).

“We’ve got some guys we have to look at,” Hoke said. “We have guys that haven’t played but competed in spring and have to keep getting after it. From a tight end situation, we feel we can do some things with that, too.”

SDSU’s offense has been defined by its running backs — players like Marshall Faulk, Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny. It’s been a few years since the Aztecs had a player like that. This running back group has more depth than recent years but struggled to find consistency last year. Senior Kenan Christon (468 all-purpose yards) will lead the rotation with junior Jaylon Armstead (6.0 yards per carry) behind him. Hoke believes the group has a good mix of speed (Christon and sophomore Cam Davis) and power (Armstead and redshirt freshman Lucky Sutton). SDSU’s big seasons in the past have typically included both in the backfield.

“We’ve got multiple guys who can give you a lot of different things,” Hoke said.

SDSU has long thrived in the trenches, but the head coach said both lines need to grow and get bigger this summer. Three of five offensive line starters return after senior center Alama Uluave graduated and right tackle Josh Simmons transferred to Ohio State.

“From a technique standpoint, our execution has to be a lot more solid and consistent,” Hoke said.

Defensively, SDSU has more questions and holes to fill. History has shown that the Aztecs almost always figure out this side of the ball. Can they do it again? All three defensive line spots and two of three linebacker spots are open, leaving work to be done this offseason. SDSU has produced an All-American on the line in each of the last two years in Cameron Thomas and Jonah Tavai. Finding a third consecutive player of that impact may be tough. Depth is needed, too. The Aztecs added Samulela Tuihalamaka from Oklahoma State, plus three junior college players, and they have three more edge rushers coming in as freshmen.

“We really have to grow,” Hoke said. “I think we have, but we need the summer to grow physically and fundamentally.”

At linebacker, sophomore Zyrus Fiaseu returns as the starter in the middle after taking over midway through last season. Senior Will linebacker Cooper McDonald also returns with 17 career starts. Other players who could see more playing time include Vai Kaho, Darrell Masaniai, New Mexico transfer Cody Moon and Kyron White, who moved over from safety late last season.

The five-man defensive backfield will be the anchor of this group. It was set to return every starter until All-Mountain West safety Patrick McMorris entered the portal and transferred to Cal this spring. A driving factor in McMorris’ decision was his family — one brother is on the Cal staff and another is on Cal’s track & field team.

“You’re never going to talk a guy out of that if it’s family-driven, and that’s what it is,” Hoke said. “I’m excited for him. He’s one of the better football players on the West Coast, and we’re excited for him and understand it.”

Even without McMorris, this group should take a step forward, led by players like cornerbacks Dez Malone and Dallas Branch, who had three interceptions each in 2022. SDSU finished 23rd in yards per attempt allowed after finishing in the top 15 in each of the previous three years, but this group will no longer have the benefit of playing behind one of the best fronts in the country, so that growth will be counted upon.

The Aztecs also have the benefit of kicker/punter Jack Browning, who was the Mountain West special teams player of the year.

(Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

The 2022 season was the first time almost anyone around SDSU remembered what home-field advantage was like. The Aztecs played in a monstrous NFL/MLB stadium for more than 50 years. In 2020 and 2021, SDSU football played every game away from home, driving two hours north to Carson, Calif., to play “home” games in an MLS stadium while Snapdragon Stadium was being built. In 2021, the average attendance was barely 10,000.

Back at a true home in 2022, the Aztecs averaged more than 29,000 fans, good for 83 percent capacity in a 35,000-seat stadium, despite the down season and uninspiring offense. Hoke thinks his team might have been overly excited about the new stadium when it lost the opener last fall to Arizona.

Snapdragon Stadium’s opening was the result of a long-term vision. SDSU won a 2018 election over an MLS-focused bid to take over the Mission Valley site that contained the former Qualcomm Stadium after the Chargers left for Los Angeles in 2017. SDSU built a stadium and a new western campus, with more planned for the area.

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“It not only benefits football, it benefits the entire department,” Wicker said. “It’s generating all kinds of other revenue streams besides a football game day. Conference commissioners can look at that and say we’re making an investment at an institutional level. That’s the type of school we want to be.”

Several years ago, SDSU began a strategic operations plan with Huron Consulting Group. It was an idea Wicker got from studying Utah when the Utes made their move from the Mountain West to the Pac-12. The plan’s focus: to position the school to not only make a Power 5 move but continue to have success at that level. Finding different revenue streams to close the resources gap with most Power 5 schools is vital.

The stadium was a big part of that, driving huge amounts of revenue to SDSU. NWSL and Major League Rugby teams play there. An MLS team will be there by 2025. Upcoming concerts include Coldplay, Pink and Guns N’ Roses. Wicker said the men’s basketball team’s run to the national championship brought $201 million of earned media value to SDSU. Traffic to the admissions website spiked.

A Power 5 invitation will increase revenue on a massive scale, allowing additional support for nutrition, facilities and more, though Wicker doesn’t want SDSU sports teams to be off in their own silos.

“I have no desire to build a bunch of independent buildings for teams to move into their own separate spaces,” he said last month. “I want student-athletes seeing each other in the training room and the academic area. I think that gives them a much better college experience.”

The Pac-12 would be a preferable and more natural landing spot for SDSU with a West Coast focus, rather than a Big 12 that spans from Florida to West Virginia to Utah, but it will depend on what is on the table. Dutcher in March said he did not envy the kind of travel USC and UCLA would see in the Big Ten.

“I’m wishing them all the best, but that’s more travel than I would ever wish on anybody,” he said.

Whatever the result, this has all come at the perfect time. The basketball run. The new stadium. The desire for Power 5 conferences to plant a flag in Southern California. SDSU built itself for this next big moment. The “when” is just a matter of time.

“There’s a lot of good things about San Diego State,” Hoke said. “You see what we’ve invested in these areas. Now we’ve just got to continue to push.”

Editor’s note: This is part of a series of stories examining the 2023 college football season’s most intriguing programs. Which teams are primed to break out? Struggling to find consistency? What’s gone right — or wrong — and what comes next? Also in this series:

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Justin Fine / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Chris Williams / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Tom Hauck / Getty Images)