3-Star U: Which schools are best (and worst) at developing NFL Draft talent?

By Ari Wasserman, David Ubben and Mitch Light

When the NFL Draft begins April 27 in Kansas City, hundreds of prospects will eagerly wait for their phones to ring and their names to be called as they take the next step in fulfilling lifelong dreams.

The universities attached to their names have plenty at stake, too. The more players a college has drafted, the more appealing it becomes to the next wave of high school football stars with similar ambitions.

Yet year after year, college coaches survey the recruiting landscape, match it against the NFL Draft numbers … and find analysis lacking. Do prospects really need to attend elite programs such as Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson to develop into future picks, or would their chances of success be just as strong at any school with a quality coaching staff?

The Athletic dug into 11 years of data to find the answer. For three-, four- and five-star prospects, which schools had the highest percentage of prospects drafted?

Using the 247Sports Composite Rating, we tallied the total three-, four- and five-star prospects signed at each of the 65 Power 5 programs from 2009 through 2019 and how many of each star rating were drafted from 2012 through 2022 in the seven-round event that features more than 250 picks each year. Then we tallied the percentages for each school. The top and bottom 10 featured some usual suspects and some surprises.

To prevent small sample sizes, we limited the rankings to schools that signed at least five five-star prospects and 20 four-star prospects.

Here, we examine the core question: If you’re a three-, four- or five-star recruit, which school gives you the best chance to go pro?

Five-stars

Choosing perennial Playoff programs is overrated

The magnetic attraction of elite prospects to Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson, recent fixtures on the sport’s biggest stage, is undeniable.

And while choosing those schools might mean reaching the Playoff, it does not correlate with a significantly higher chance of reaching the NFL. The landscape is littered with five-star prospects who did not attend a blue-blooded program yet were still selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft.

Defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche was the No. 1 overall prospect in the class of 2013, signed with Ole Miss and became a first-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals in 2016. Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was the No. 4 overall prospect in the Class of 2013, signed with the Rebels and was drafted 13th overall by the Miami Dolphins in 2016, despite a high-profile draft-night drop.

Offensive lineman Greg Little and defensive tackle Ed Oliver were both five-star prospects in the Class of 2016. Little went to Ole Miss and was drafted in the second round by the Carolina Panthers. Oliver spurned the entire Power 5, stayed home at Houston and was selected ninth overall by the Buffalo Bills in 2019. Shaq Thompson went to the University of Washington as the No. 4 overall prospect in the Class of 2012 and was drafted by the Panthers with the 25th overall pick in 2015.

Micah Parsons was the No. 5 overall prospect and stayed home in Pennsylvania to play for Penn State. He became the 12th overall pick and won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2021 with the Dallas Cowboys.

Over the span we examined, there were 370 five-star prospects. Of those, 215 were drafted (58.1 percent). Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Georgia all fared well, but Oklahoma’s percentage was much lower, and lots of schools that didn’t sign enough five-star prospects to qualify still turned five-stars into pros.

Eleven schools (Washington, Iowa, Michigan State, North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Oregon State, Kansas State) turned 100 percent of their five-star signees into draft picks but didn’t sign more than five in the last 11 classes.

Texas A&M: A surprising ‘5-Star U’

Texas A&M excelled at developing five-stars despite some high-profile misses. Kyler Murray transferred from Texas A&M to Oklahoma after a tumultuous freshman season and won the Heisman Trophy before the Arizona Cardinals selected him first overall in 2019. Aggies five-star receiver Thomas Johnson from the class of 2012 withdrew from the university during his freshman season. He was convicted of murder in 2019 and is serving a life sentence. For our data purposes, schools got credit for a draft pick only if the player’s next stop after leaving campus was an NFL locker room.

Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher is one of only two coaches with two programs in the top 10 “Five-Star U” rankings, but former coach Kevin Sumlin deserves credit as well for his hyped recruiting classes upon A&M’s arrival in the SEC developing into NFL talents. Myles Garrett, the No. 2 prospect in the Class of 2014, became the Cleveland Browns’ No. 1 overall pick in 2017. A top prospect becoming a top pick is far from guaranteed. Trenton Thompson, the No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2015, signed with Georgia but went undrafted after leaving school early in 2018.

It’s curious that Texas A&M ranks so highly in developing five-stars into draft picks but 60th in developing four-stars.

Oklahoma and Texas must improve in the SEC

The Big 12 has a major issue developing elite prospects, and that is largely because of the two big fish that are soon headed to the SEC. Texas and Oklahoma were among the lowest percent of five-star prospects who were drafted — and they accounted for 29 of the 34 five-star prospects who signed with the league over the examined period.

Jackson Jeffcoat was the third-highest rated prospect to ever sign with Texas. He was the jewel of the Class of 2010 but went undrafted in 2014 because of injuries and his status as a tweener linebacker/edge rusher, and the Longhorns went without a draft pick for the first time since 1937. Running back Johnathan Gray was the nation’s No. 6 overall prospect in 2012 and went undrafted following a career that included two torn Achilles tendons and zero 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

Oklahoma had two five-star backs, Keith Ford and Brandon Williams, transfer to Texas A&M, and receiver Trey Metoyer was dismissed from the program after an indecent exposure charge. Linebacker Caleb Kelly was a Freshman All-American, but his career was undermined by a trio of knee injuries. Offensive lineman Brey Walker started just two games for the Sooners in five seasons before leaving the program after the 2022 season.

No SEC team had a worse rate of converting five-star prospects to pros than OU or Texas. If that continues in the SEC, it will be difficult for them to continue to sign those coveted prospects.

Stanford is an outlier

Stanford’s program slipped in recent years, but the Cardinal ranked among the best at turning three-stars into pros. And no one was better at converting five-star prospects into draft picks. Defensive lineman Solomon Thomas (49ers, 2017) and offensive lineman Andrus Peat (Saints, 2015) both arrived as five-stars and left as first-round picks. Offensive lineman Walker Little (Jaguars, 2021) and quarterback Davis Mills (Texans, 2021) were also picked after signing with Stanford as five-stars.

We see you, Urban Meyer and Jimbo Fisher

Urban Meyer (Florida and Ohio State) and Jimbo Fisher (Florida State and Texas A&M) each have their thumbprints on two programs that have been more than sufficient with five-star talent development. Both also had extended runs at the two programs they oversaw, resulting in quite a bit of influence on this data.

Four-stars

Baylor’s success is fascinating

None of Baylor’s coaching changes the past 11 years were a result of on-field failure, but the Bears have managed to thrive at developing four-stars under Art Briles, Matt Rhule and Dave Aranda.

Wide receivers Kendall Wright (Titans, 2012) and Corey Coleman (Browns, 2016) both arrived at Baylor as four-stars and left as first-round picks.

Some struggles extend beyond the field

Nebraska hasn’t recruited as well as the Vols and Longhorns, but the three blue-blood programs that have mostly fallen on hard times the past decade have struggled to develop players. Some of that can be chalked up to coaching turnover in all three cases, but Nebraska signed 67 four-stars in 11 draft classes and produced just three draft picks from that crop. That number was in a league of its own. Comparatively, Minnesota had four four-stars drafted from just 11 four-star signees in the same span.

From 2009 through 2022, the three programs have combined to have 12 head coaches and just two seasons with more than 10 wins (Texas in 2009 and Tennessee in 2022).

Texas and Tennessee’s developmental issues bled over to their five-star prospects as well, as both programs were among the worst at developing elite talents. Nebraska has not signed a five-star prospect since Marlon Lucky in 2005. Two of its highest-rated four-stars, though, finished their careers elsewhere (Aaron Green at TCU and Tyjon Lindsey at Oregon State).

For Tennessee, five-star running back Bryce Brown finished his career at Kansas State and defensive lineman Kyle Phillips went undrafted.

What’s up with Georgia Tech?

The sample is small, but none of Georgia Tech’s 14 four-star signees from 2009 through 2019 were drafted. That’s 0 percent — compared to the 22.1 percent of the overall 3,565 four-star recruits during this time frame who were signed.

And on a related note: How can a Power 5 program located in Atlanta sign only 14 four-stars (and no five-stars) in an 11-year stretch? We realize that Paul Johnson, who was the head coach through the 2018 season, did things a little differently — recruiting to the triple-option — but this still seems like an astounding lack of success.

The truest test of a program’s pure development?

Five-star prospects are almost universally special talents who often have NFL-ready physiques that test a program’s ability to not screw up the possibility of a game-changing impact player. Three-star prospects are more a test of a program’s ability to evaluate the huge amounts of players with that designation to find the ones who best fit their program. But four-star prospects are big talents who are far from a guarantee but can still develop into big-time NFL prospects.

(Rob Tringall / Getty Images)

Three-stars

Big-time programs scout, develop three-star talent

Ohio State wins the title of “Three-Star U” — which may seem odd given the Buckeyes routinely recruit classes loaded with top-100 players.

Without looking at the data, you might have guessed that the programs that are most successful in developing three-star prospects into NFL Draft picks are the ones who win the most with the least. You might have thought a team like Northwestern, Iowa or Iowa State would have been Three-Star U just based on the fact that those teams always seem to be good despite not recruiting at a high level. Let this be a reminder that development from the big-time programs isn’t simply reserved for five-star prospects. Schools with the most resources also seem to be the most apt to make something out of nothing. If you’re a three-star prospect, you still have a higher chance of being drafted at a place like Ohio State than you would at a program that’s known as a lovable overachiever.

Data needs context

Yes, Ohio State has the highest percentage of three-star development, but not all three-star prospects are equal. For instance, in the 2023 class, there were 1,817 three-stars. Ohio State and other programs high on this list were more often taking prospects rated somewhere in the top 600 rather than outside of the top 1,000. A three-star prospect who rates as the No. 450 overall player in a class is nothing like one who rates No. 1,500, even if they are both technically three-star prospects.

It’s important to acknowledge that it’s harder to maintain a higher percentage of drafted players if a program has signed a larger total amount. Most programs sign classes that are built with mostly three-star prospects, so it’s easier for schools who have signed fewer to have a higher conversion rate. And if a program is signing fewer three-star prospects, it’s likely that the quality of the three-star prospects being signed is higher.

It seems odd that the recruiting services don’t utilize the two-star rating a little more. There is no reason to have 2,000 three-star prospects in a given class and all but ignore the two- and one-star ratings. To have more accurate data, it would be helpful if there were more two-star prospects with Power 5 offers rather than lumping 2,000 recruits together who sometimes have vastly different skill sets.

Wisconsin and LSU — quantity and quality

Wisconsin signed 51 more three-star prospects than any other team on this list yet still had a 14.5 percent conversion rate. Perhaps that’s why the Badgers had been a main fixture in the Big Ten Championship Game for much of the past decade.

LSU also deserves some credit here. The Tigers signed 103 three-stars during this stretch — compared with 68 from Ohio State and 65 from Alabama — and still had a 20 percent success rate.

Gary Patterson — more with less

A glimpse at the list of the worst draft rates for three-stars is mostly a collection of schools that consider reaching bowl games a successful season.
TCU, meanwhile, transitioned to a new conference, won at least 11 games four times and reached the Playoff last year. Considering its company in the schools with the worst draft rates for three-stars, TCU’s level of success on the field is even more impressive. Patterson led the program before Sonny Dykes took over before the 2022 season.

The true development kings: The ACC

The SEC has led all conferences in total draft picks for 16 consecutive years, including 65 last season. That’s more of a testament to the SEC’s recruiting prowess than its reputation as a developer for recruits themselves. The ACC has turned a higher percentage of four- and five-star prospects into draft picks than any other power conference.

The SEC was king among three-stars, which was no doubt aided by the quality of three-star prospects most teams in the league sign on a consistent basis.

The Big 12’s failure at developing five-stars falls solely at the feet of Texas and Oklahoma.

Ultimately, the ACC narrowly edged out the other Power 5 leagues in developing four- and five-star prospects, but the idea that anyone who signs with an SEC program is sprinkled with pixie dust that increases their odds of making it to the NFL doesn’t jibe with the data.

Boston College: Developmental U!

No program did a better job than Boston College of producing draft picks relative to its recruiting rankings. Consider the following: The Eagles were 64th in average class ranking from 2009 through 2019 (only Kansas State was worse among P5 teams) yet ranked 34th in percentage of signees drafted. They signed zero five-stars and only seven four-stars during this 11-year stretch and still had a higher percentage of their recruits (three-star and better) drafted than Texas, which signed 17 five-stars and 146 four-stars.

One of the program’s best developmental stories is offensive lineman Chris Lindstrom, a second-team All-Pro pick in 2022 who was ranked No. 1,037 in the Class of 2014 and was selected by the Atlanta Falcons 14th overall in 2019.

There were four other programs that had at least a 20-spot difference between their average recruiting ranking and percentage of signees drafted — two on the positive developmental side and two on the negative side. Iowa was plus-24 (46th in average class, 22nd in percentage drafted) while Wisconsin was plus-21 (40th, 19th). Texas (seventh, 35th) and Tennessee (12th, 40th) were both negative-28 during this time period.

Bottom line: Quality recruits = quality players

Eight of the 10 Power 5 programs with the highest average recruiting class rank from 2009 through 2019 are among the top 10 in highest percentage of overall signees (three-star and better) drafted from 2012 through 2022. The top four recruiters during this span (Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and LSU) are also the top four in percentage of signees drafted — in a slightly different order (Alabama, Ohio State, LSU and Georgia).

The two outliers are Texas and Auburn. Texas is seventh in average class rank but only 35th in percent of signees drafted, while Auburn is ninth and 20th, respectively.

Conversely, seven of the 10 programs with the lowest average class rank during this span can be found on the list of lowest percentage of signees drafted.

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photo: gorodonkoff / istock)