Predicting the 2023 college football season TV schedule: Weeks 1, 2 and 3

On May 31, the major TV networks will announce their selections and kickoff times for the first three weeks of the 2023 college football season. It’s always a fun way for fans to whet their appetites for the start of a season that’s still several months away.

But this year’s announcements should be particularly illuminating because it’s the first since the Big Ten’s new agreements with Fox, CBS and NBC. With that conference no longer part of ABC/ESPN’s Saturday lineup, other leagues like the Big 12 — which now includes BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — may find themselves with more attractive time slots.

The networks and their conference partners recently held fantasy football-style drafts to determine their picks for the first three weeks, plus a handful of big games later in the year. By looking back at previous seasons’ schedules — and with insight gleaned from a handful of announcements they’ve already made (like NBC showing West Virginia–Penn State in Week 1) — we took an educated guess at what Weeks 1, 2 and 3 will look like for ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox/FS1 and ESPN/ESPN2.

Note: All times in ET

Week 1

This year’s Week 1 lacks the glamor matchups of seasons past, save for LSU–Florida State in Orlando, and even that one is being played Sunday. Fox has already announced that its first Big Noon game on Sept. 2 will be Deion Sanders’ Colorado debut at TCU. In its new contract, Fox is expected to air a weekly Big Ten game in that time slot, but it has some flexibility this season due to CBS airing only seven Big Ten games during the final year of its SEC deal.

That tells us NBC likely got the first pick this week and used it to put West Virginia-Penn State in prime time. CBS will assuredly take Ohio State at Indiana, and we guess will air it at noon to avoid going head-to-head with Michigan (vs. East Carolina) in Fox’s 3:30 slot. (Fox does not have a prime-time game this week due to a Major League Baseball commitment.) CBS also has a small package of Mountain West games. Last year in Week 1 it aired Arizona–San Diego State at 3:30; this year we chose Washington State at Colorado State.

The big question: What will ABC show in its prime-time window? One possibility is North Carolina–South Carolina in Charlotte, with Tar Heels star Drake Maye as the selling point. But it’s unlikely either team will be ranked higher than No. 20 in the preseason, if at all, whereas Washington, led by Michael Penix Jr., should be in the top 10. So we put the Huskies’ matchup with Boise State in prime time, with the SEC-ACC neutral site game on ABC at 3:30 p.m. They could easily be flipped.

Virginia vs. Tennessee in Nashville is a logical choice for ESPN’s 7 p.m. slot. There are no great options for ESPN’s noon slot, which is usually an SEC game, so we went with Alabama-Middle Tennessee State. And an interesting test case for this new world is UTSA at Houston — which now falls under the Big 12’s contract. We put it on ESPN at 3:30 p.m.

* Indicates game time/network has been announced

Week 2

There are screams, themes and potential memes popping up everywhere throughout Week 2. The screams are two-tiered. One was of joy from Bristol, Conn., which has the earth-shaking collision between Texas and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It was early enough in the season to avoid CBS’ clutches. Considering the Longhorns head to the SEC next year and all of the league’s rights then will belong to the Worldwide Leader, this game will provide infomercial-like overtones for 2024 and beyond.

The screams are road-ragey in tone from Fox executives when they look at their prized partner’s Week 2 schedule. The Big Ten boasts the type of schedule it wouldn’t wish on an upstart streaming service, let alone a company that owns 61 percent of BTN. There are five Power 5 games against nonconference opponents, and all five are on the road. All. Freaking Five. Rating drivers Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State play at home, but their games consist of two FCS opponents and a G5 squad that failed to reach a bowl game in 2022. It’s unreal the league couldn’t convince at least one of its schools to alter its schedule to ensure a quality game for the network in Week 2.

Fox’s contracts with the Pac-12 and Big 12 save it from a potential disaster. This is where the themes enter the equation. Fox branded “Big Noon Kickoff” as its signature college football showcase in sync with the Big Ten. Of the season’s 14 weeks (counting Week 0), the Big Ten aired on Big Noon 10 times with the Big 12 filling the three other spots. Fox did not air a noon game in Week 1 because it broadcast Penn State at Purdue two days earlier in prime time.

ESPN has announced Texas at Alabama for 7 p.m., and the rest of the week builds off that game. For Big Noon, Fox’s options come down to a Big 12 selection or somehow nudging a Pac-12 game into the early window. Like manna from Heaven, Deion Sanders comes to the rescue yet again. Sanders’ Colorado squad faces old Big Eight/12 rival Nebraska for his home opener. Sure, it’s early (10 a.m. local), but it’s better than 9 a.m. on the West Coast. This is an easy pick for Fox. As for its two other windows, Utah at Baylor (3:30 p.m.) and Wisconsin at Washington State (7:30 p.m.) are sneaky good games. The Big Ten-controlled schedule is weak, but Fox should come out decently well.

In most weeks, CBS will alternate with NBC for the second and third spots in the Big Ten behind Fox but sometimes it gets the No. 1 selection. We suspect this is one of those weeks (lucky them). Without a strong Big Ten game available, CBS likely pivots to rating security with Michigan hosting UNLV. Ironically, UCLA at San Diego State as a Mountain West pick at 3:30 should be the better game.

ABC/ESPN boasts the week’s most interesting docket for its three primary time slots. Four solid games could appear just about anywhere. It has the Big 12’s top choice, which projects as Iowa at Iowa State with Oregon at Texas Tech a close second. It also has two high-profile ACC games: Texas A&M at Miami and Notre Dame at NC State. The raucous Cy-Hawk rivalry provides a great backdrop as a curtain raiser at noon. As for prime time, Notre Dame at NC State has standalone credentials and won’t slice into the Texas-Alabama audience like A&M-Miami would.

Finally, there were three interesting games for ESPN’s noon slots: Ole Miss at Tulane, Cincinnati at Pittsburgh and Appalachian State at North Carolina. It’s possible one could move to Friday or end up on ESPNU.

* Indicates game time/network has been announced

Week 3

The final season of the SEC on CBS package begins with Week 3, and Tennessee-Florida is a near-annual fixture in that 3:30 p.m. time slot. That leaves Georgia’s SEC opener against South Carolina for ESPN’s prime-time window. For ABC’s prime-time game, we debated between the Pitt-West Virginia Backyard Brawl or Florida State at Boston College, ultimately going with the latter because of the Seminoles’ brand power and potential to be a CFP contender this year.

Fox will almost certainly go to the Big Ten for Big Noon this week and must choose between Washington-Michigan State or Penn State-Illinois. We chose the latter mostly because that network tends to pick Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State whenever possible. NBC then gets Huskies-Spartans in prime-time.

After slotting SEC games LSU-Mississippi State (noon, ESPN), BYU-Arkansas (noon, ESPN2) and Kansas State–Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPN2), we ran out of room for Georgia Tech-Ole Miss, which would presumably air on SEC Network. Minnesota-North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ESPN) is a decent ACC game.

Finally, there’s an interesting wrinkle this week: Alabama is playing a road game at AAC foe USF. The other broadcast networks can’t air an SEC home game opposite the CBS 3:30 game, but there’s no such restriction for a nonconference road game, so ABC lucks into Alabama in its mid-afternoon window. Houston’s first-ever Big 12 game against TCU, goes to Fox.

Notable games later in the season

After the first three weeks, networks use 12-day designations — and a few six-day windows — to assign games and time slots. That’s why when leagues hold drafts, networks select weeks (i.e., the first pick in Week 7) rather than specific games, outside of a few high-profile matchups.

Week 5 provides a great example of the unknowns networks face. In the Big Ten, the two biggest games include Michigan at Nebraska and Michigan State at Iowa. The Wolverines are guaranteed quality TV ratings, but they travel for the first time. The other three teams have games against challenging opponents beforehand — MSU against Washington, Nebraska against Minnesota and Colorado, and Iowa against Iowa State and Penn State. If Nebraska is unbeaten, then it gets the Big Noon treatment. But what if the Huskers are 2-2 and both Michigan State and Iowa are undefeated? That’s why networks use 12-day windows.

The SEC’s Week 7 slate provides a similar question. Three games lead the way: Texas A&M at Tennessee, Arkansas at Alabama and Auburn at LSU. Among those six teams, there are three head-to-head matchups in Weeks 4-6. What happens in Week 4’s Auburn-Texas A&M and Arkansas-LSU games will determine who plays at what time and which network in Week 7.

Finally, there’s rivalry weekend. The leagues and networks will have to navigate around the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game (3 p.m. on Amazon Prime), and for the first time, the Big Ten has two games (Iowa at Nebraska and TBD). One will air on CBS and the other in prime time on NBC. Two Big 12 games (Texas Tech at Texas, TCU at Oklahoma) also air on Black Friday, along with an ACC game (Miami at Boston College), a Pac-12 rivalry (Oregon State at Oregon) and an undetermined SEC game.

The Saturday slate currently includes no less than 24 in-state or border-state rivalries. Ohio State at Michigan kicks off at noon on Fox, and Alabama at Auburn likely starts at 3:30 p.m. on CBS. What about the others? Before assigning games to their networks, television executives want to see the season unfold.

Frankly, so do we.

(Top photo: Patrick Gorski / USA Today)