Rob Mullens has “great confidence” the Oregon Ducks are going to “end in the right place.” Whether that place remains in the Pac-12 or elsewhere is the question that has been facing the University of Oregon, its administration and athletic director for nearly 11 months and looms as the conference continues to negotiate a new media deal.
That process began last July in the immediate aftermath of the UCLA and USC announcing they were leaving to join the Big Ten in August 2024. Since then, the Big 12 expanded and its commissioner, Brett Yormark, outmaneuvered Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff to reach a new media deal that gave that conference stability and locked up multiple television windows on Fox and ESPN.
Kliavkoff has projected confidence ever since, though he declined to speak publicly at the Pac-12 men’s basketball tournament or during the league’s spring meetings earlier this month. For more than six months, the 10 remaining members have been said to be committed to staying together, with a new deal two to three weeks away, only for the process to continue to drag on and draw closer to the end of the Pac-12′s current grant of rights, which expires Aug. 2, 2024.
Mullens has been in regular communication with former UO interim president Patrick Phillips, current interim president and chief financial officer Jamie Moffitt and incoming president John Karl Scholz, as well as university general counsel Kevin Reed and members of the board of trustees regarding the Pac-12 and its future.
“Everybody’s in the loop now,” Mullens said.
When Kliavkoff finally presents a prospective media deal to the conference’s presidents and chancellors, the decision they make will alter the landscape of college athletics as expansion and realignment appear to be on the horizon for multiple leagues.
“The Pac-12 has 10 outstanding members remaining and we’re one of them,” Mullens said. “I think the Pac-12 has served the University of Oregon well. I think everybody is aligned. I think there’s great confidence we’re going to end in the right place, is what I think. We’re in a new world of athletics and that resource base does matter, and we’re fortunate in the incredible support that we get.”
As one of, if not the most valuable brand of the remaining 10 schools in the Pac-12, Oregon is in a precarious position.
In an equal revenue distribution, UO will be receiving below its full value from the conference. Even with an unequal distribution based on performance, as Kliavkoff has suggested could be possible, with as much as 50% of the conference’s distribution from the College Football Playoff going to a participating school, sustaining such a model over the long term is near impossible, as the defections of Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12 to the SEC and ongoing angst within the ACC shows.
But Oregon is also in a difficult position to go elsewhere, namely to the Big Ten, which has long had equal revenue distribution among its members. Sports Illustrated reported former Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren pushed to add Oregon and Washington this winter, but that there wasn’t sufficient money to make further expansion viable.
That reality is why last fall Nike founder Phil Knight said UO is “sitting out there in the in-between.”
Will that change if the Pac-12 were to disband? That’s still unclear.
Should the Pac-12 secure a new grant of rights and media deal, Oregon will not be demanding a clause for a reduced exit fee should an invitation to the Big Ten come in the years to follow — something multiple Pac-12 athletic directors told The Oregonian/OregonLive this winter would be untenable.
“We’re a good partner,” Mullens said. “We’ve always wanted what’s best for the whole and will continue to make sure that we’re representing the University of Oregon’s interests, but understanding that you are part of a conference. You are part of a 10-group organization.”
This uncertainty has yet to impact Oregon’s football program, as Dan Lanning and his staff signed a top 10 recruiting class in 2023 and have 11 commitments in what is currently the No. 7 class for 2024.
“Oregon’s obviously a great product,” Lanning said. “I think you look at this conference, you see a lot of great football teams right now playing at an elite level. I’m excited to go play this year’s game(s). I’m really not worried about the next piece. That’s not my job.”
Oregon men’s basketball also signed a top 10 class with three five-star prospects and Oregon women’s basketball signed three top 70 recruits.
Whether those trends can continue if the Pac-12 survives and expands to include the likes of San Diego State, SMU or others, with a revenue gap that continues to grow as the Big Ten and SEC pull away from their peers in the Power Five, is only part of what’s at stake in the ongoing process.
Scholz, who attended Oregon’s spring football game as well as women’s soccer and baseball games and other campus events last month, was non-committal regarding his preference for UO’s conference affiliation. His term officially begins July 1, the same day SDSU’s exit fee from the Mountain West triples if it is to leave in 2024.
Mullens was among those on UO’s presidential search committee and interviewed Scholz during that process. Now they’ll be two of the most important voices in deciding the school’s athletics future.
“When you’re doing an interview with presidential candidates, athletics is one of 20 questions that you talk about but obviously with his background as a student-athlete himself and at the University of Wisconsin, which is competing at the highest level with a broad-based program as well, I’m anxious to work with him,” Mullens said. “It was great to see him at women’s soccer, at the football spring game and then at the baseball game. He’s got a lot of things coming at him. Excited to get him in Eugene. I think he’s going to be a great leader.
“He was the interim president at Wisconsin. I think he had his finger on the pulse of the major issues in college athletics. He will come study the uniqueness of the University of Oregon and Oregon athletics. I think he’s a great leader at the right time for the university, in many ways.”