How valuable is SMU actually to the Pac-12′s pursuit of a digital media deal?

UNIVERSITY PARK – It takes two to tango, and for years, SMU made it clear that it wanted the Big 12′s invitation to the conference expansion dance.

And for years, SMU stayed home, only to watch the Big 12 dance with other schools.

This time, SMU may have a Power Five partner in the Pac-12. There are reasons this conference expansion buzz, sparked by Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff visiting the campus this month, feels more real for SMU.

The big difference is that SMU can offer something unique to the Pac-12 – location, location, location.

It’s irrelevant for the Big 12, with schools that have established fan bases in the Dallas market, but it offers a top-five television market in another time zone for a conference out west. In that case, it’s an attractive bargaining chip.

But how valuable is a top-five TV market for a potential digital media rights deal? And how much of the Dallas market does SMU — a school with below-average Division I enrollment, but above-average wallet sizes — bring to the table?

The answers are based on projections, much like the future of live sports streaming.

“We’re at a moment where we’re to figure out an intelligent way to convert the guaranteed, in some ways, cable revenue to some new model: subscription-based digital streaming,” said David Hollander, a professor of sports management at NYU and author of How Basketball can Save the World. “So naturally, one of the great metrics would be who watches games, period. What is the size of the market, period.

“From there, you get more strategic.”

The need to be strategic is what led to the Pac-12′s interest in SMU. Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 have been struggling to find a media rights deal, and the value on the table is far below what the conference or its members hoped. Not surprising, considering the Big 12 jumped ahead and signed a $2.3 billion-dollar deal with Fox and ESPN before Halloween.

Last week, almost four months after the Big 12′s deal, the Pac-12 put out a statement saying a deal is coming in the “very near future.”

Later, Brett McMurphy of the Action Network reported that CBS and Turner were out of any potential Pac-12 negotiations.

With the conference running low on options, officials are likely pointing toward a digital deal as well as considering the addition of SMU and San Diego State.

The combo can’t replace USC and UCLA, who are joining the Big Ten next year. There are nearly 5.5 million TV homes in the Los Angeles area – about 1.7 million more than San Diego and Dallas-Fort Worth combined, according to Jon Lewis of Sports Media Watch.

When USC and UCLA played last year on FOX, 4.53 million people tuned in. SMU’s most watched game, and the only time it cracked the one-million mark, was the New Mexico Bowl against BYU on ESPN (2.04 million).

That data includes some streaming information, but not all of it, making it hard to project how SMU and the Pac-12 as a whole would perform on a streaming platform. Besides, not every one of Dallas-Fort Worth’s 2.7 million television homes includes SMU fans, and not all of them are willing to cut the cord or add another subscription to their bill.

Dallas fans who want to watch the Mavericks, Stars, Rangers and other local sports have already had to consider adding a subscription to Bally Sports, whose future under its financially troubled parent company is unclear.

RELATED: Bally Sports’ parent company misses payments, a potential prelude to bankruptcy filing

Lewis said he believes streaming will be “more and more a fixture in the sports viewing experience.”

Amazon, for example, just completed its first season as the home of the NFL’s Thursday Night Football. Although viewership was down from the previous year, the live stream was still the most viewed program on 13 of the 15 nights it aired, according to The Athletic, with increased viewership in the 18-49 age demographic.

“Ultimately, they’re just trying to build something,” Lewis said of Amazon’s live sports pursuits. “And they’ve got so much money, whether it makes financial sense is kind of immaterial because they’re trying to build a sports enterprise.”

Lewis equated it to what Fox did in the mid-1990s when it acquired the rights to broadcast the NHL, MLB and, most vitally, the NFL.

“You don’t just want to be a one-sport pony.”

Speaking of ponies: How valuable is SMU to the Pac-12 and a potential media rights deal? Hollander said SMU has potential in the digital landscape, despite its enrollment numbers and average football game attendance – which at 24,971 would be last in the Pac-12, about 1,000 behind Washington State.

“There have been 30 for 30s on SMU,” Hollander said, referring to the ESPN documentary series.

“SMU is a well-known brand, in a city that has celebrity cache, so if you’re collecting live-sports property, and waiting to see how media delivery resolves itself, I think SMU is a pretty safe bet.”

And perhaps it’s the best bet the Pac-12 has at this point.

On Twitter: @JoeJHoyt

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