MIAMI, Fla. — The two Orange Bowl coaches wrapped up the traditional presser and photo-up, then made two very different exits.
Georgia’s Kirby Smart, two-time national champion, walked out by himself, not in any particular hurry, trailed by just a couple of staffers.
Then in a swirl came the the entourage with Florida State’s Mike Norvell, encircled by police officers and staffers. They made their way through the lobby at the Le Meridien Hotel in a way that made onlookers wonder what dignitary was in their midst.
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Florida State, aching to be a powerhouse again, is acting like one, putting itself at the epicenter of big-time college athletics. It’s suing its own conference, an act that could alter the course of the sport. And its team and officials have spent the week here in the presence of a team from one of the conferences it could be joining.
Or might not be.
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Florida State vs. the ACC: Understanding the Seminoles' conference unrest
In some quarters, Florida State fleeing to the open arms of the SEC seems an inevitability. A cultural and geographic fit. But amid people in the industry, who talk on background, it’s a much less likely proposition.
Georgia president Jere Morehead said in August, amid the latest round of realignment, he thought the SEC was fine with 16 teams. Morehead reflected the sentiment of the league at large, and there’s no indication yet that’s changed. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey may make an appearance here this week, but it will be to support his current team, not to court Florida State. In part because doing so would invite legal trouble. In part because Sankey and his school presidents just aren’t feeling it.
This isn’t Texas and Oklahoma making it known — quietly — early in 2021 that they were unhappy with the Big 12 and open for suitors. The SEC also wasn’t looking to expand, but not only were the Longhorns and Sooners compelling additions, but Sankey and his presidents knew that if they turned them down then the Big Ten or even the ACC and Pac-12 would pounce. That made two very good reasons for the SEC to take them.
Florida State — and Clemson or Miami, were they to tag along — would not be that. Their brands are good, but wouldn’t expand the SEC’s footprint. (Yes, the SEC was already in Texas, but it’s a huge state, and having the Longhorns and Aggies locked it down for the SEC.) More importantly, it’s the timing, in the case of both super conferences Florida State is eyeing.
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The Big Ten is about to be 18 schools and has its lucrative television contract. The SEC is at 16 schools, is also about to start its new TV deal and has been dealing with the headache of football scheduling, a subject intertwined with its TV deal. Neither league is too eager right now to add two more teams unless they’re the most compelling ones out there.
Notre Dame? Yes.
North Carolina? Sure.
Florida State, Clemson or Miami? Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh?
But there’s also the way Florida State has gone about this. From a public standpoint it’s actually refreshing. Conference realignment, a decision that affects so many, is almost always a cloak-and-dagger affair, decided by a handful of people without the affected people (athletes, fans, coaches) having a say. Florida State’s administration is doing this in full view, almost every step of the way. Great content for those of us in the media world.
But for the power brokers in other conferences, it’s off-putting. It reeks of arrogance, and worries people about how FSU would react once it gets in their league.
FSU is acting like many worried Texas would act in the SEC — and hasn’t yet during its indoctrination process. So far, the Longhorns look like an equal and problem-free partner. If you’re Sankey and others in the SEC, who have valued the comity within this league over the decades, you wonder how long that can last the more egos you bring into the room.
Which isn’t to say the SEC won’t at some point act. But it would only come if its hand is forced. And even then it’s no sure thing.
There is confidence in Florida State circles about the Big Ten. It would be new territory for that conference, for one, but the Seminoles would, in theory, only be part of the package. Were they to win the grant of rights case it could free up every ACC school. North Carolina would be the biggest fish thanks to its combination of athletic and academic prestige, brand name, and that it would expand the footprint of both the Big Ten and SEC.
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There could also ensue a high-stakes chicken game: Would the SEC fear being dwarfed by the Big Ten and having its territory encroached, and thus take FSU and another ACC school as a preventive measure? ESPN figures into this too: It’s paying FSU much less per year to be in the ACC, so it doesn’t benefit from Florida State going to the SEC. But would ESPN worry about losing the FSU brand to the Big Ten and its television partners?
There’s also the true nuclear scenario: an ACC breakup sparks the long-discussed breakaway of the big schools into one big super league. Goodbye SEC, Big Ten, ACC, etc. Hello College Football League, a conglomerate of 30 or so teams, with everyone else left to their own devices.
Realignment has shown us that tradition, regionalism and common sense take a backseat to market forces. And Florida State may be forcing the market, although the process could take years.
Amid all this, of course, is a game to be played. Florida State, depleted by opt outs, could make a statement by beating a Georgia team that will still have most of its starters, including the quarterbacks. It could move the needle for the school. Not that Seminole players are in the loop.
“Not much,” defensive lineman Braden Fiske answered when asked how much he’s paid attention to it. “It’s out of our control. Let the people handle it that have to handle it.”
Those people may be here this week, wearing their suits and quarter-zips, plotting moves. Realignment will be a continuous subject as long as Florida State and the ACC are in court. Those in the SEC, meanwhile, are watching it with wary eyes, nobody sure what will happen, many worried about the future of realignment. But nobody wanting to fall behind.
(Photo of Florida State coach Mike Norvell: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)
