Five Takeaways From January's NCAA Transfer Portal Findings
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Takeaways From The NCAA 's Recent Transfer Portal Report
Executive Summary
NCAA Research Department Published last Month NCAA Transfer Portal Findings
Study focused on transfer portal data from two most recent academic years unless otherwise note
Transfer portal records are managed by the NCAA school’s compliance office
A transfer portal “entry year” spans August 1 to July 31
The number one reason for transferring cited by male student-athletes was different than the the top reasons cited by female student-athletes
Transfer numbers across all sports and genders have increased year over year and, for some sports, have more than doubled.
The number of graduate student-athletes transferring increased significantly year over year.
The transfer portal came in to existence in October 2018
Transfer portal numbers year over year may reflect the recent impacts of COVID and an increased appetite to “shop around” by student-athletes
Transfer portal numbers will continue to be in focus in the 2020s as national enrollment and graduation numbers, by sport and gender, begin to fill out.
The NCAA’s Research Department recently published a report highlighting a variety of transfer portal data categorized by sport, gender, and overall numbers.
The first takeaway of note is one that may be the most predictable---the weeks following a student-athlete’s season is when transfer portal entry was most frequent. Historically speaking, that follows trends that pre-date the transfer portal (which came into being in October 2018), in that student-athletes often decided on transferring at the conclusion of their season. With that said, especially in FBS football, student-athletes are making decisions to enter the transfer portal at other points in the year, too, as the following graphic outlines:
The NCAA report also shows an upward trend in the number of transfers overall. There was an increase in the number of student-athletes entering the transfer portal in 2021 (from an estimated 8% of all Division I student-athletes in 2020 to 11% in 2021). The increased numbers were most marked for graduate student-athletes. Specifically, the percentage entering the portal as graduate transfers has significantly increased (23% in 2020, 31% in 2021) in most every sport.
When breaking down the reasons for transferring by gender, the top reason for male student-athletes to transfer was playing time/participation opportunities. For female student-athletes, the top reason cited for transferring was tied between mental health and conflict with teammates or coaches
The percentage of Division I student-athletes that entered the transfer portal increased from 2020 reporting year to 2021 across both genders as the following graphic shows:
Going back three reporting years, when looking at Division I men’s sports, men’s basketball took a significant jump from 2020 to 2021 after being relatively flat from 2019 to 2020. Many other men’s sports, although fewer in number, doubled and in some cases quadrupled (men’s ice hockey) the number of transfers from 2019 to 2021. Every single men’s sport has increased year over year in the past three reporting years as this graphic outlines:
On the women’s side, numbers are also increasing. Specifically, women’s basketball transfers almost doubled from 2020 to 2021. Women’s sports, similar to men, saw bigger increases between 2020 and 2021 versus 2019 and 2020. Although purely speculative, the impact of COVID-19 in to these transfer numbers from past two years is an intriguing hypothesis behind the recent surge.
The NCAA Research Department also considered in their report the variable of whether a student-athlete was on an athletics scholarship when they entered their name in the portal. By NCAA rule, a Division I school does not have to continue offering athletics aid to the student-athlete entering the NCAA transfer portal beyond the end of the regular academic term in which written notification of transfer is received. The following three slides consider overall, male, and female student-athletes on athletics aid entering the transfer portal. The sports shaded in green reflect an increase of at least 5% from the prior reporting year.
Another subset the NCAA Research Department explored were graduate student-athletes and their proclivity to transfer. For both male and female student-athletes, those numbers also increased from 2020 to 2021 and for most sports, by at least 5% from the prior year.
One of the more eye-popping trends in the early years of the NCAA transfer portal are the percentages (or lack thereof) of student-athletes finding a “new home” with an athletics scholarship. Specifically, the NCAA report indicated that 54% of Division I student-athletes who entered the transfer portal in 2021 (and were not subsequently withdrawn) matriculated at an NCAA member school by January 10, 2022.
Further, while 61% of aided Division I student-athletes who entered the portal between August 1, 2020 and July 2021 matriculated at an NCAA school, only 37% of unaided students were found on an NCAA roster by January 2022. And 51% of aided Division I transfer portal entrants were able to transfer to another NCAA school and receive athletics aid (which, according to our math, means 49% did not find a new home with athletics aid); 18% of unaided entrants received athletics aid at an NCAA transfer destination. The following graphic shows, by division and aid status, where student-athletes landed in terms of the new school and whether they received athletics aid.
The following graphic speaks to the significant number of transfer portal entrants who are not resurfacing at another NCAA school, regardless of division.
Baseball, for example, only shows 46% of its 2021 transfer entrants matriculating at a new institution. Baseball is a sport that faced disconcerting transfer trends and academic outcomes 15-plus years ago that led to sport-specific reform including the addition of prescribed in-season squad limits, scholarship minimums, and other mitigating measures that promoted roster stability and academic retention.
Note: Limited to those who entered the Transfer Portal during the 2021 academic year (Aug. 1, 2020-July 31, 2021) and matriculated at an NCAA member school. Those who were entered into and subsequently withdrawn from the portal are not included. Indoor/outdoor track student-athletes counted only once. Data accessed 1/10/2022.
The interest in transferring was also captured from survey data. Specifically, based on an NCAA student-athlete well-being study conducted in Fall 2021, at least 8% of Division I male student-athletes and 10% of female student-athletes responded “somewhat likely” or “very likely” as to whether they would likely transfer at some point this year.
The final graphic below delves into the reasoning and motives behind transferring. For male student-athletes, playing time/participation opportunities was cited as top reason followed by mental health and conflict with coach or teammates. For female student-athletes, mental health and conflicts with coach or teammates were tied for the top reasons for seeking to transfer.
The transfer portal arrived about 18 months before the pandemic. The transfer portal also coincided with the change in transfer rules in sports like football, baseball, ice hockey, men’s basketball and women’s basketball allowing for immediate eligibility if it’s the student-athlete’s first transfer from one four-year institution to another.
The NCAA membership will be eyeing closely in the next couple of years whether the transfer data is a harbinger for impacts on graduation rates based on the uptick in transfer portal entry. As some of the early returns already show, many student-athletes on athletics aid are opting to walk away from a bird-in-hand scholarship to test the waters and, in some cases, find no landing spot with an athletics scholarship awaiting them.
Athletics Veritas is presented for information purposes only and should not be considered advice or counsel on NCAA compliance matters. For guidance on NCAA rules and processes, always consult your university’s athletics compliance office, conference office, and/or the NCAA.
